The Astro’s 2005 first round pick has finally made his major league debut. However, not in the way Houston’s brass would have imagined. Brian Bogusevice was drafted 24th overall in 2005 out of Tulane as a pitcher but halfway through 2008, converted to playing the outfield. Just two years later, he’s in Houston. Today, thanks to the September 1st expanded rosters, Bogusevic made his debut and helped Houston finish off a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals. Bogusevic pinch hit, stole a base and scored a run. Just yesterday I named Bogusevic as the Astro’s potential call-up I most wanted to see in the majors. You can read that post here.

In the series against St. Louis, Houston outscored their division rivals 11-2. The Astros have now won 8 of their last 10 games. Most of that is due to catching the Phillies and Cardinals at the right time. However, Houston’s pitching has to be given some credit. In those ten games, they’ve given up just 1.7 runs per game. 1.7! And if you didn’t know, Roy Oswalt is no longer an Astro. Catching the Phillies and Cardinals at the right time is one thing but those are still two of the more talented offenses in the National League and the Astros have made them look completely helpless.

Of the Astros remaining 29 games, only 9 are against teams above .500. 6 of those are against the division leading Reds and the other 3 are against the 68-66 Manny-less Dodgers. If Houston can keep up their brilliant pitching and finish the year playing as well as they have, they could flirt with 80 wins. If they finish out 18-11 they’ll end the year 80-82. 19 wins and they’re a .500 club. And nobody. Nobody saw that coming.

29: Houston’s league rank in OPS and SLG%

28: Houston’s league rank in Batting Average, OBP, and Homeruns

27: Houston’s league rank in Hits and Runs

22: Houston’s league rank in WHIP

20: Houston’s league rank in ERA

.285: Highest average on the team. Sadly belongs to Jeff Keppinger

.348: Highest OBP on team. Also belongs to Keppinger.

That wasn’t a typo. Jeff Keppinger really does have the highest AVG and OBP on the team.

60: Wins for Houston so far this season

52: Expected wins for Houston so far this season

So despite not hitting anything and really not pitching well at all, the Astros have managed to play 8 games above their expected place according to the pythagorean theorem of baseball. Does this mean Brad Mills is doing a much better job managing than you might think? Maybe. The Astros are currently on pace for a 74-88 finish. If you told me at the beginning of the year the Astros would trade away their best pitcher (Roy Oswalt) and best hitter (Lance Berkman) and finish close to dead last in nearly every statistical category, I would have certainly agreed with you. If you had told me the Astros would trade away Oswalt and Berkman, and finish near last in almost every statistical category yet still win 74 games? I would probably say I hope Brad Mills gets an extension. The Astros have undoubtedly benefited from a good deal of luck this season but with a run differential of -106 and sitting only 10 games behind the Cardinals and the almighty Tony La Russa who have a run differential of +92? You have to give Mills some credit. Mike Scoscia consistently manages his team ahead of their pythagorean projections and deservedly gets lauded. If Houston keeps this up, I simply hope people notice.

Get used to that phrase because I will be using it again. I love it. And if I were on the Astro’s Marketing team I would already be printing t-shirts donning the cry for fans to mock opposing hitters.

This afternoon the Houston Astros won their fifth game in a row and, much to the delight of the Atlanta Braves, capped a 4 game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Game 1: Brett Myers, former ace of the Phillies, went 7 innings, gave up 2 earned runs, and struck out 9 for the victory.
• Game 2: Houston won a 16 inning marathon game and got to watch their former ace Roy Oswalt play left field for Philadelphia. If you told me at the beginning of the season that I’d watch Roy Oswalt play left field against the Astros, I would have laughed harder than the Florida Marlins on the way to their bank. Bud Norris went 6 innings and gave up just 2 earned runs.
• Game 3: J.A. Happ allowed two runs over six innings against his former team and picked up the victory over Roy Halladay.
• Game 4: Wandy went 7 innings, gave up a single earned run and struck 6 while walking one. With the victory, Rodriguez now has 10 wins with a 3.87 ERA. Pretty remarkable considering how bad his first two months were. Carlos Lee hit his third homerun in the past week.
• Overall: Chris Johnson raised his batting average 12 points to .342. Hunter Pence continues to have a great season now hitting .283 with 79 Rs, 20 HRs, 80 RBI, and 16 SBs. In the 4-game series, Houston allowed just 7 totals runs.

For most of the first half of the season, Houston looked like the worst team in baseball. But thanks to a huge second half in which they’ve gone 22-16, the Astros are just 1.5 games behind the Brewers for third place in the NL Central. A feat many including myself would have thought nearly impossible as recently as the all-star break. This team continues to make me extremely optimistic about the future for Astros fans.

It’s not often you see a player drafted out of a Division II school in the 20^th round move through the minor leagues as quickly and emphatically as Houston’s J.D. Martin has. Martinez had been drafted in 2006 (in the 36^th round by the Minnesota Twins) but opted for school. Martinez attended Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale, Florida where he dominated each of his three seasons. In his final season, Martinez batted .428 with 15 HRs, 57 RBIs, and a single-season school record 73 runs on his way to being named a D-II first-team All American. The Astros proudly made him their 20^th round selection in the 2009 June draft.

Martinez didn’t fare much different in his first stint in the minors than he did in college. In the Appy League, he hit .403 with 5 HRs and 23 RBIs in 19 games. That’s all it took for the Astros to bump the outfielder from Rookie-A to Low-A Tri-City in the New York-Penn League on July 12, 2009. Martinez would capture the NYPL batting title after qualifying on the next to last day of the season. In his 53 NYPL games, Martinez hit .326 with 61 hits.

Astros management and development directors determined one Low-A batting crown was enough and started J.D. Martinez in High-A Lexington of the South Atlantic League for 2010.  Baseball America named Martinez the best hitting prospect in the league. Martinez .362 average ranked first in the SAL League and second in all of minor league baseball. He also finished first in on-base percentage (.433) and slugging percentage (.598). The 15 HRs and 64 RBIs Martinez racked up before his promotion each ranked second in the league as well. J.D. Martinez became the first player in the Astros’ 2009 draft class to reach AA.

For a while it looked like maybe Martinez simply played to the level of those around him as he improved each step of the way. From Rookie-A to Low-A to High-A, Martinez increased his BB% and decreased his SO% at each level.

Now in Double A, he is finally seeing equal competition. However, he’s still raking. For Double-A Corpus Christi, Martinez’ line currently stands at .319/.378/.454 (all career professional lows at any level but still stellar). The reigning SAL League best hitter just celebrated his 23^rd birthday 3 days ago and will almost undoubtedly start 2011 at Triple-A Round Rock. The versatility of Martinez can only help him reach the majors. He’s played left field, right field, DH, and first base in the minors. I expect to see Martinez in Houston sooner rather than later and there’s no sign he’s going to slow down when he does.

What’s the only thing worse than signing Pedro Feliz to a $4.5 million contract? Trading for him during that contract period when he’s hitting .221 with just 4 homeruns and 31 RBIs in 97 games. But that didn’t stop the Cardinals from doing that exact thing, much to the Astros delight. I’d love to be in on those discussions.

John Mozeliak: “I’m interested in Pedro Feliz.”

Ed Wade: “Yeaaahhhhh. And I’m interested in Jeff Suppan.”

John Mozeliak: “No, seriously. We could use some thirdbase help.”

Ed Wade: “Oh, sorry. I didn’t realize the waiver wire was so desolate.”

John Mozeliak: “What would it take to get him?”

Ed Wade: While thinking ‘A bag of balls, Applebee’s gift certificates, cigarettes, anything of value…’ he saracastically says “A young minor leaguer with a live arm?”

John Mozeliak: In a Seinfeld-esque George Steinbrenner voice “You got it! Dan Carpenter. Dan Carpenter. We’ll send him right away!”

Ed Wade hangs up confused…

I can only imagine it went something like that. In any case, huge victory for the Astros. Houston will be sending some money along with Feliz to St. Louis to help with his contract but dumping any portion of his remaining salary and acquiring a talented, while raw, minor leaguer has to be seen as a plus in Astro nation.

Carpenter has only pitched since 2008 when he was converted from catching. He’s gone 10-6 with a 3.26 ERA in 116 career games. He’s still just 25 and is currently having his best season yet. In Class-A he’s 5-3 with a 2.36 ERA and 20 saves. Carpenter should stay in Class-A for the rest of the season. I guess with Jason Motte, the Cardinals didn’t have room for a hard-throwing catcher turned late-inning reliever. And their Carpenter position is currently held by Chris.

The other positive ramification of this trade? The Astros recalled Tommy Manzella who had been rehabbing in the minors before Pedro Feliz was even to George Bush Intercontinental Airport. Manzella hit just .212 before getting hurt so this isn’t an ‘instant offense’ move. However, he did go 15/41 in his 11 game rehab stint so maybe the shortstop feels more comfortable at the plate than he did before. The man who replaced him, Angel Sanchez, is hitting .291. And Sanchez has the same amount of RBIs as Manzella (16) in 23 fewer games so I hope he doesn’t lose too much time. With Keppinger ailing at the moment, Manzella and Sanchez will probably also both see some secondbase duties. In whatever situation, they’re both upgrades over Feliz.

Rhino

Brett Myers began his career as a starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2002 and by 2005 had become their unquestioned ace. Myers was then moved to the closer role, back to the starting rotation, to the bullpen, and back to the starting rotation. The Phillies couldn’t figure out why he never pitched consistently.

The Houston Astros acquired Myers to be a veteran right-hand man to ace Roy Oswalt, now coincidentally a Philly. Brett Myers is pitching fantastically this year and has been all season. Here is an early season fantasy take on Myers. Myers has a 3.13 ERA in 2010 to go along with a 1.21 WHIP and 136 SOs. And the ERA isn’t the only career best for the Astro’s right hander. Myers is posting career bests in HR/9 and BB/9. Homeruns were his bugaboo last season when he gave up 2.3 HR/9 but he has completely changed the trend. And getting out of Citizen’s Bank certainly helped. Myer’s pitching this year is one reason Houston can live without Oswalt (blaspheme to the Astro faithful). Houston controls Myers for 2011, 2012, and also hold a vesting option for 2013. We certainly can’t expect Myers to post this good of numbers for all of the next three seasons but he’s only 29 and could still be finding his prime. I definitely think the Astros will be competing for a division title by 2013 and Myers will undoubtedly be a big part of that…given they don’t trade him Oswalt-style first.

Houston won tonight 4-3 over the Mets for their 4th win in 5 games. I’m not going to mention all these games have come at home and the first three wins were against the Pirates. We’ll start with the good news…

• Hunter Pence had 2 homeruns, including what would be the game winner in the bottom of the 8th.
• Houston got 5 shaky but good-enough innings from Nelson Figueroa.
• The Astro’s 1 through 3 hitters were a combined 6/12 with all 4 runs and all 4 RBIs

Now, what 2010 Astros fans are more accustomed to, the bad news…

• Hunter Pence was the only Astro to drive in a run.
• Carlos Lee, Chris Johnson, and Brett Wallace (the 4-5-6 hitters) were a combined 1-13.
• Carlos Lee saw just 9 pitches in 4 at-bats.
• Jason Castro went 1-3 to raise his average to .195.

With the Astros in the midst of one of their strongest waves of winning all year, you’d expect an all-positive post. But this is where I mention these 5 games have all come at home and the first three wins were against the Pirates. While I’ve written extensively on some of the Astro’s bright spots and young stars namely Wallace, Pence, Wandy, Happ, and Bud Norris, they have some ugly holes that showed tonight. Carlos Lee is sinking faster and harder than any pitch Stephen Strasburg can throw. And due to his huge contract, he’ll be here for years. Chris Johnson is a streaky hitter and when he’s not hitting over his head, he will be prone to dry spells and power outages. Houston has a glaring weakness at the end of their rotation and in their bullpen. You can survive with a bad 5th starter. You can’t survive with a bad 5th starter and a shoddy bullpen. But tonight isn’t the night to harp on that since Houston came away with a W in large part to a strong bullpen performance (the Killer L’s didn’t pitch, coincidence?). There are two other factors that stick out to me from tonight’s game. The Astros need more consistent production outside of Hunter Pence. While there is a reasonable chance Wallace and Johnson will fill this role in the future, watching them struggle off and on next to the albatross that is Carlos Lee, makes for some painful moments. Lastly, Jason Castro is absolutely, 100%, not ready to be facing big league pitching. Please bring someone in, Wade!!! Arencibia, Doumit, David Ross, anyone!!!

Wandy Rodriguez pitched a fantastic game for the Astros tonight but saw it ruined by the Killer L’s (one of them anyway). Brandon Lyon came into a tie game in the 8th inning tonight against the New York Mets. Lyon pitched brilliantly throwing 10 of 15 pitches for strikes in a perfect inning including 2 punch outs. Lyon’s ‘L’ partner, Matt Lindstrom, did not pitch quite as well. Lindstrom needed 18 pitches to get one out and gave up 3 hits, a walk, and 2 earned runs before being relieved by Gustavo Chacin. Lindstrom picked up the loss as the Astros went down 3-1.

This is just another wasted outing by Wandy Rodriguez. And according to Pitchfx, Wandy brought a little extra something to Minute Maid tonight. For the season, Wandy’s average speeds for his fastball, curve, and change are 89.5, 75.5, and 84.2 respectively. Tonight against the Mets they were 90.6, 76.5, and 85.5 respectively. This may not look like a huge difference but over seven innings and 110 pitches, these velocity increases are substantial. Rodriguez looked great tonight allowing just 4 hits, 3 walks, and 1 earned run while striking out 6. The increased velocities are also much closer to his stellar 2009 season where his fastball averaged 90.1 and his curve 76.7.

Tonight’s performance dropped Wandy’s ERA to 4.04, the lowest it’s been since May 1. Overall, Rodriguez’s stats don’t look too bad on the year despite some big struggles along the way mostly thanks to a recent hot streak. In his last 5 starts, Wandy has allowed just 3 earned runs over 35.1 innings lowering his ERA over a full run from 5.11. The first few months of the season were a bit of an anomaly for Wandy but he seems to have rediscovered what made him one of the best pitchers in the National League just a season ago. Which is great news for the Houston Astros.

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Player A: .276 66 R 15 HR 59 RBI 14 SB (454 PAs)
Player B: .288 56 R 14 HR 55 RBI 14 SB (440 PAs)

Player A is Hunter Pence and Player B is Shin Soo Choo.

Hunter Pence has been quietly producing while Choo is lauded as an up-and-coming superstar. Choo has been in feature articles by nearly every sports media outlet this year. Do you know what Hunter Pence has been up to? Pence leads the Astros in runs, homers, RBIs, and OPS. The right fielder has been the most consistent contributor to the team all year and although he isn’t putting up MVP-like numbers, he doesn’t get near the attention he deserves. Pence just goes about his business without anyone even noticing…..like a ninja!

Hunter Pence broke out his rookie season, hitting .322 with a .360 OBP, .539 slugging, and .899 OPS (all career highs). Pence may not repeat his rookie line but he’s not exactly Jeff Francoeur either. Now in his fourth year, Pence owns 162 game averages of .286/.336/.478/.814 with 84 R, 25 HR, 86 RBI, and 15 SB. Which are basically Shin Soo Choo numbers. And at 27 (same age as Choo), Pence is just entering his prime. Plate discipline has been Pence’s biggest flaw, although it’s not like he’s Mark Reynolds, but the Astros star has improved his strikeout rate each year he’s been in the big leagues. His rates for four seasons are 20.8, 20.8., 18.7, and 16 respectively. If Pence can continue the trend, his line and ratios should only improve. Also at 27, it’s fair to think a bit more power could develop but I’d say 25 homeruns is probably a good seasonal expectation. Pence was an all-star in 2009 and I see him making the midsummer class again…and soon.