MLB insider’s free agent predictions highlight Astros' offseason challenges

The offseason is arriving very quickly, especially if the Yankees can't figure out how to not embarrass themselves further. With the impending arrival of free agency comes a ton of actual experts and self-proclaimed "experts" trying to predict what the Houston Astros and other teams around the league are going to do when it comes to adding or passing on roster changes.

The stakes for the Astros are a bit higher than usual. They stand to lose franchise icon Alex Bregman, and it's looking more and more like Yusei Kikuchi could join him. Those are two significant losses for the Astros from their 2024 roster and it is unclear what moves, if any, Houston can make to cover for their departures.

This problem was laid bare when Jim Bowden put out his free agent rankings for The Athletic.

At first glance, mentioning that the Astros are among the best team fits for guys like Bregman, Kikuchi, Christian Walker, and Cody Bellinger seems like it should be exciting for Astros fans. However, a closer look at those players' predicted contracts raises some real problems.

Astros' payroll limitations are going to hamstring them this coming offseason

All of the players that Bowden mentioned as "fits" for the Astros make varying degrees of sense. Bringing back Bregman and/or Kikuchi would be great, and both Walker and Bellinger would solve some roster problems that Houston is currently dealing with. When one looks at what Bowden thinks these guys will get in free agency (assuming they all get there), a problem arises.

Astros Potential Free Agent Target Salary Predicitons

• Alex Bregman - Seven years, $185.5 million
• Christian Walker - Three years, $72 million
• Yusei Kikuchi - Three years, $42 million
• Cody Bellinger - Four years, $112 million

See the problem? The Astros' front office is already on record in saying that in order for them to make any meaningful upgrades in free agency, they are going to have get "creative" when it comes to spending, given the state of their payroll. As it turns out, when your owner gets put in charge of player personnel decisions for six weeks and loses his mind, there are consequences for that decision.

Jim Crane has shown a very strong reluctance to go over the luxury tax previously, and if that holds this offseason, one wonders if the Astros make any significant signings at all. Even if he is open to doing so this offseason, there is still the matter of extensions for guys like Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker that the Astros have to consider before committing to any of the above players.

The most likely option at present is that the Astros make one decent-sized signing this offseason while addressing the rest of the roster with minor moves and internal promotions. If that were to come to pass, Astros fans could probably live with that. However, the suggestion that Houston could be in on all of guys Bowden listed as options for them feels like a real reach.

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