The Houston Astros are going to undergo a lot of important changes heading into 2025. We have already seen the Astros shake up their coaching staff a bit, and there is no shortage of takes on what Houston should do regarding Alex Bregman's potential departure. However, one name that hasn't gotten nearly as much attention is Yusei Kikuchi.
When the Astros traded for Kikuchi at the deadline, the deal was widely panned as an overpay by Houston -- and that may still be true, given that he was a rental.
However, that deal looked a lot better after the fact, as the Astros seemed to be unbeatable with Kikuchi on the mound. Some of that was likely small sample weirdness, but Kikuchi did make some really good adjustments and posted a 2.70 ERA in 10 starts after the trade.
Kikuchi was so good that many called loudly down the stretch for the Astros to keep him around for 2025 and beyond. His previous track record should keep his market price at reasonable levels, and clearly the Astros and Kikuchi are on the same page when it comes to how he should be used. Unfortunately, Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart just all but killed any hopes that the Astros could bring Kikuchi back -- or even make an offer.
"No. The Astros don’t have a ton of payroll flexibility for 2025, so signing Kikuchi when they already have some quality starting pitching depth isn’t likely," McTaggart responded. So ... so much for that.
Astros fans shouldn't hold their breath for a reunion with Yusei Kikuchi
Just like that, all of the optimism that Kikuchi could return is basically gone. At the end of the season, Kikuchi himself said that he was open to returning, and there is some wisdom in bringing him back to solidify the rotation, especially with the number of injured starters the Astros have going into 2025.
Unfortunately, this is a decision that comes down to opportunity cost. Houston doesn't have unlimited funds to have everything they want, and there are genuine roster holes they need to cover. As of now, giving Bregman a "competitive" offer to keep him in the fold, as well as finding a first baseman they can trust, are much higher priorities than bringing Kikuchi back. Given how firm and terse McTaggart's response to that question was, it sure seems like he isn't just speculating and is familiar with the front office's general plans.
There is a world where a reunion with Kikuchi COULD happen, but it involves some less desirable outcomes to happen. Assuming a world where Bregman signs elsewhere AND Houston can't ink a deal for a first baseman they like such as Christian Walker, that would theoretically free up resources that could go to Kikuchi.
At the end of the day, the team likes Kikuchi and that means never say never here. However, that also assumes that another team doesn't swoop in and sign Kikuchi which, given his performance post-trade, feels extremely likely to happen.