Details from Astros-Cardinals trade talks show how much Nolan Arenado hurt Houston

It has been apparent for a while now that the Houston Astros and Alex Bregman are clearly not on the same page when it comes to contract negotiations. The Astros' standing offer to Bregman was never going to be enough to get a deal done, and there has been little in the way of progress in talks since that initial salvo. Things took a turn this week, however, when word got out that the Astros tried to trade for Nolan Arenado, only for Arenado to nix the deal (for now).

Aside from the fact that this was a lesson as to why trading for a guy with a no-trade clause is problematic, the failed trade highlights the precarious situation Houston has put themselves in. Trading away Kyle Tucker made them strictly worse in the short term, which makes them less appealing as a destination for free agents or trade targets. That, in turn, hurts the Astros' negotiating position when dealing with Boras/Bregman.

Now that the details of the proposed trade have begun to come out, it only paints a rougher picture of what Houston has to deal with this offseason.

Nolan Arenado may have put the Astros in a no-win situation this offseason

Look, it is absolutely Arenado's right to exercise the no-trade clause that he negotiated in his contract. Perhaps he just doesn't think the Astros will be good enough for him at this stage in his career. It is also entirely possible that Arenado wants to see where else the Cardinals could move him and view a bigger pool of options (and offseason maneuvers) before making a decision. However, that he has so publicly quashed a trade to Houston creates some real problems for Houston.

One, any goodwill that existed between the Astros and Bregman likely just took a major hit. Houston just tried to very obviously replace him with Arenado and nearly succeeded. If you think his handlers are going to forget that when discussing a possible contract, you need to brace for disappointment. While we don't know for sure, it feels likely that the price for the Astros to keep Bregman just went up, especially given how much of Arenado's remaining salary Houston was apparently willing to take on.

This is also an expectations game that the Astros' front office finds themselves on the wrong end of. Trading away Tucker could very well be the smart baseball decision to make, but Houston fans have come to expect the Astros to contend every single year. They are a worse team without Tucker (and probably Bregman). Assuming Arenado's decision is final, that makes it more likely that the Astros will have to pay (and potentially overpay) for an impact bat like Christian Walker or Pete Alonso just to keep the masses from descending upon them.

In an ideal world at this point, Arenado changes his mind and okays the deal. Houston wouldn't have progressed that far in talks with St. Louis if negotiations with Bregman were going well anyways. If not, the Astros are going to have to pivot very quickly to either giving Isaac Paredes the reins at third or snatching up one of their stopgap options at third and then trying to sign one of the big first base bats available.

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