As the Astros' hope of re-signing Alex Bregman grows a little fainter every day, they've turned their attention to a contingency plan in the Cardinals' Nolan Arenado. Sure, Arenado would be an offensive downgrade, but he's got three years of team control left, would be cheaper than re-signing Bregman, and is still an elite defensive third baseman.
On Wednesday, The Athletic's Katie Woo named the Astros as "serious contenders" for Arenado, but there was always a wrinkle that threatened to spoil it all: Arenado's no-trade clause.
He's made it pretty clear on social media that he wants to be a Dodger, but the Dodgers haven't shown the same love back. More importantly, the list of six teams he'd waive that clause for didn't include Houston. The Astros maybe could've tried to appeal to Arenado directly if they were really that desperate to get him, but that one little clause was always there to threaten a deal.
And that's exactly what happened. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported on Wednesday evening that Arenado had, in fact, blocked a trade to the Astros.
Astros trade target Nolan Arenado exercises no-trade clause to block a trade to Houston
Feinsand also reports that the Cardinals were "willing to send $15-20 million to the Astros as part of the deal to help pay down Arenado’s salary," which would cover most of the $21 million he's owed in 2025 (though the Rockies also still owe St. Louis $10 million). He also wrote that the Astros and Cardinals are still in talks about a deal, but Arenado getting in the way means that there's really no way forward.
Even though Cardinals PoBO John Mozeliak seems pretty set on trimming payroll, Arenado has made it clear that he can and will stay put if a trade doesn't suit him, and the Astros' recent deal with the Cubs that sent Kyle Tucker to Chicago wasn't exactly a great look if they're still trying to attract a guy with that much leverage.
It seemed as though the Astros put all of their eggs in the Arenado basket, and with Bregman slowly sliding away, they have very few options left on the free agent market to address third base. Josh Rojas and Jon Berti are out there, but both pale in comparison to what Arenado could've offered. It's a major blow for Houston, and they're going to be flailing to find other viable options.