3 moves that would make Astros’ dream offseason, 2 that would turn it into nightmare

The Houston Astros have a lot of work to do and not much to do it with this offseason. The list of needs isn't the longest, but the areas where they need help are critical and expensive. That's where things get difficult.

Assuming Houston operates as it has in the past, exceeding the luxury tax line will be a no-go. The luxury tax threshold for 2026 is set at $244 million, which means the club only has about $11 million to work with.

That won't be enough to solve their key needs. The Astros need at least one high-end starter, and preferably two arms in the rotation. Another reliever in the pen wouldn't be a bad idea either. And they'll need to fill out the bench. Adding some more firepower to the starting lineup isn't a bad idea either, but that ranks secondary to everything else on the shopping list.

The good news is, the Astros can create some space with a few easy and one not-so-easy moves. With that, we're going to take a look at what dream moves Houston can make, and what nightmare scenarios they could fall prey to. For the purposes of this exercise, we're going to assume they make the non-tender moves to free up space, as well as a trade that will be detailed a bit later on. As a result, we can project that Houston will have $36.7 million to work with, meaning the possible acquisitions will all keep that number in mind.

Three dream moves the Houston Astros can make this offseason

1. Trade Christian Walker and cash to cover half his salary to the New York Mets for infield prospect Boston Baro (No. 21) and SP prospect Jose Chirinos (unranked)

Christian Walker will be a tough sell on the trade market, and in this exercise, we're assuming that the New York Mets aren't on his limited no-trade list. The Astros have to pay down half his salary, but that's the win here since it frees up an additional $10 million to spend, which gets us to the full $36.7 million we've allocated for our budget.

Here's why it makes sense for the Mets. They're obviously wary of giving Pete Alonso a long-term deal, even in light of the way he bounce-back 2025 campaign. Alonso is thought to want seven years, and given the history of slugging first basemen aging poorly into their late-30s, handing him such an offer is a risk.

This time around, the Mets have more holes to fill. They need an ace, might need to replace their closer should Edwin Diaz opt out, and also need a center fielder. DH and second or third base could also be spots where they look to upgrade. They don't have the time to wait around and have a staring contest with Alonso again.

Walker, at a reduced salary, could be an attractive option then. He posted a .799 OPS in the second half and has recovered from poor years in the past. 2021 was Walker's worst full season in the bigs as he dealt with oblique issues, and then he came back in 2022 and hit a career-high 36 homers. Lost in the shuffle of all of Houston's injuries, he did have a sore oblique in spring training, which perhaps impacted his first-half performance in 2025.

The prospects coming back to Houston are lottery tickets. This trade isn't about anything other than clearing salary to repurpose the spending in more efficient ways. Moving Walker clears first base for Isaac Paredes and gives a boost to the 2025 budget, and that is the real win.

2. Sign SP Zac Gallen for two years, $38 million with an opt-out after the 2026 season

This one will require some patience. The free-agent class is relatively weak this year, but the starting pitching group is relatively plentiful. If Zac Gallen were to hit free agency last year, he'd have made a pretty penny. But this year, the 30-year-old right-hander is coming off the worst season of his career, headlined by a 4.83 ERA.

That makes this something of a dice roll, but Gallen has a long track record of pitching like a strong No. 2, which is exactly what Houston needs behind Hunter Brown.

Spotrac projects Gallen to get a four-year, $74.8 million deal that would give him a $17.8 million average annual value. The most common contractual comparisons for him are Taijuan Walker's four-year, $72 million deal, Jack Flaherty's two-year, $35 million deal, Jameson Taillon's four-year, $68 million contract, and Frankie Montas's two-year, $34 million pact.

Gallen is a Scott Boras client, so the idea of a four-year deal after a down year might not be palatable for him. The $22 million qualifying offer might tempt him should Arizona extend it, but this proposal, which is basically a Scott Boras special, allows Gallen to get a decent payday in 2026 while also providing the opportunity to reel in a megadeal next offseason when he'll be entering his age-31 season, while still having the security for 2027 should things not go his way.

The upside here is too good to pass up, so the Astros make the deal even if it costs some draft compensation.

3. Sign SP Merrill Kelly for one-year, $16 million

The Astros dip back into the free-agent market to sign another reinforcement for the rotation in veteran southpaw Merrill Kelly. This would be big for two reasons.

First, with Framber Valdez likely pricing himself out of the Astros' budget, there would be a left-handed void in the rotation. Kelly fills that, but it's not just his handedness that matters. Even at 37, he's still a quality pitcher.

Kelly's 3.52 ERA in 2025 marks the third time in four years in which he's posted a mark in the mid-3s or better. He's also thrown at least 177 innings in three of the past four years, with a high-water mark of 200.1 coming in 2022. Durability and stability are two things in the rotation that Houston desperately needs.

The second key point is that his taking the No. 3 spot in the rotation, re-slots the rest of the group into more appropriate roles. Cristian Javier becomes the fourth starter, and if he is better after shaking off the rust from his Tommy John recovery, he could become an overqualified one.

For the fifth spot, Spencer Arrighetti and recently graduated top prospect AJ Blubaugh can battle it out, with the loser serving as quality depth. This also pushes Lance McCullers Jr. to a mop-up role. At $17 million, he's an expensive innings-eater out of the pen, but given his 2025 struggles, it's necessary that he isn't counted on in the rotation.

Two nightmare moves that could doom the Astros

1. Sign 1B Pete Alonso for his projected market value of six-years, $176.6 million

Even if the Astros are able to move off of Christian Walker, this move would make little sense, though, according to Jon Heyman, the Astros are interested.

Alonso wants seven years, but Spotrac has him settling for six with a hefty $29.4 million AAV. That would eat up almost the entire Astros' budget, but worse yet, wouldn't solve any of their key needs.

Ridding themselves of Walker just to turn around and sign Alonso does nothing to alleviate the infield logjam and would prevent any meaningful upgrades from being made to the starting rotation.

While the deals are smaller in comparison, the Astros' forays into big-money first basemen like Jose Abreu and Christian Walker have not gone well, to say the least.

Houston has big money tied to its books on a number of fronts already, and such a deal for Alonso would seriously constrict future flexibility. The Astros are probably still stinging from the lineup's frigid spell during their stretch run collapse, and while a power bat like Alonso alleviates those concerns, he isn't worth the cost or the risk.

2. Sign CF Trent Grisham for two years, $35 million with an opt out after 2026

Assuming the Astros cut bait with Jesus Sanchez, they could be tempted to bring in a left-handed outfield bat to replace him. Even better if the outfielder in question can handle center to protect against the possibility of injury to or regression from Jake Meyers.

Some believe that the Astros are one of the best fits for Trent Grisham because of this. Grisham's stellar walk rate, 34 homers, and .811 OPS would look great in Houston's lineup and provide the only true viable threat from the lefty batter's box besides Yordan Alvarez.

The problem is that Grisham's career outside of 2025 has told a much different story. In the prior three seasons, he posted batting averages below .200 and OPSs of .675 or below. While he's a two-time Gold Glover, his defense declined in 2025.

Outs above average pegged him at slightly below average with a -2 mark, while he looked a lot worse by defensive runs saved with -11.

Grisham's true market value is tough to determine. Some believe he might bet on himself and accept the qualifying offer if the Yankees extend it, or accept a similar type of one-year deal elsewhere. Spotrac, meanwhile, projects him for a four-year, $48 million deal. Splitting the difference with a two-year deal that comes with an opt-out feels like a good middle ground.

The Astros will need to take some risks, given their limited funds, but while Zac Gallen looks like a good gamble, Grisham does not. Gallen has a track record to fall back on, whereas with Grisham, you really have to believe that he is the player he showed in 2025, versus who he had been from 2019 through 2024.

Ultimately, that's a risk not worth taking, especially when Houston has bigger fish to fry this offseason.