Astros' path to keeping Framber Valdez this offseason just became more difficult

Throughout all of 2025, the impression has been that Framber Valdez was ready to put the Houston Astros behind him. Valdez wasn't shy about throwing the Astros' coaching staff under the bus, and the cross-up incident with Cesar Salazar put a spotlight on Valdez not being the best of teammates in the clubhouse. Once believed to be the top free-agent starting pitcher on the market, Valdez's free agency is a little more complicated now.

Looking beyond the drama off the field (and on the field) for Valdez, his struggles during the second half added to the Astros' collapse in September. In his last 71 innings pitched of the season, Valdez had an ERA of 5.20 while only striking out 19.9% of the hitters he faced. Not to mention, overall, there was a noticeable dip in his fastball velocity.

All factors that likely lead to Valdez's next contract not being as lofty as many projected it to be at the start of the season. That said, he has pitched over 175 innings in each season since 2022, and teams often tend to point to that kind of stability while overlooking whatever red flags may exist.

Framber Valdez might leave Astros for one of these lurking contenders

That was the impression from Mark Feinsand's latest for MLB.com. Listing the top 30 free agents this offseason, Valdez falls in at No. 9. The MLB Network insider mentions the controversies that have surrounded the 31-year-old pitcher this season, but that his track record still puts him in line to get a "healthy deal". In listing Valdez's potential suitors, Feinsand has the Astros at the top, followed by the Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals.

The Blue Jays have grown used to being the bridesmaid of each offseason, so if they were looking to make a splash, addressing the top of their rotation could make sense. At the very least, it doesn't seem too likely that the Los Angeles Dodgers would poach Valdez away from them in the fashion they did Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki.

The Cardinals are a curious fit, considering the expectation is that they will be resetting in 2026. Signing a pitcher that is quickly approaching the wrong side of 30 doesn't seem to be aligned with the team's goal of shifting to a younger core.

If that is Valdez's market, then the chances would be in the Astros' favor for a reunion. But, as the offseason truly gets going in a couple of weeks, the usual suspects will begin to emerge for Valdez, making it clear that a return to Houston isn't that likely.