Astros 2026 payroll might explain everything about their next big move

Many, many decisions await the Houston Astros this offseason. The club is going to need to decide whether they truly believe they can return to contention in 2026, or if the window has shut, requiring a pivot towards more future-oriented plans.

What is for sure is that their 2025 trade deadline misfire will give them little room to work with this offseason. Despite their best efforts to stay under the 2025 luxury tax line of $241 million, those deadline deals pushed Houston just over the tax line with a final payroll of $245,429,602. As per the CBA, the luxury tax threshold for 2026 is not much higher at $244 million. The Astros' current situation (all numbers per Spotrac) has them sitting at $233 million, including projected arbitration figures.

With that ballpark idea, we can see that despite needing to add a couple of starting pitchers, possibly an outfielder, and maybe another arm or two in the pen, Houston doesn't have a lot to work with. This also doesn't account for taking care of any of their own free agents. The good news is, the Astros can free up some space, and it might tell us about their next big move or moves.

What the Astros' 2026 payroll situation tells us about their next big move(s)

The Astros can free up a decent chunk of change through non-tenders

Starting with roughly $11 million to work with doesn't leave Houston much wiggle room to attack its key needs. While Framber Valdez hurt his market somewhat with the cross-up drama and a poor performance down the stretch, he'll still be paid handsomely. $11 million isn't enough to get a suitable replacement, much less attack some of the Astros' other needs.

But Houston has a large class of players in arbitration, with many in the latter stages, which makes them more expensive. Not all of those players are necessities for the 2026 roster, and a few non-tenders could give the club some breathing room. Three in particular stand out.

The one place the Astros have some organizational depth is in the outfield. Cam Smith is here, and both Jacob Melton and Zach Cole seem ready for regular big league reps. Houston also needs to keep left field somewhat open for both Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve on occasion. Jesus Sanchez laid an egg after arriving at the deadline and is quite expensive, while Chas McCormick has been awful with the bat for two years now.

Ramon Urias's acquisition didn't make much sense at the time, as he seemed superfluous with Mauricio Dubón also on the roster. Dubón is projected to be even more expensive at close to $6 million, but the Astros seem to love him for some reason. Still, $12.6 million is egregious for two utility men, and if Dubón is their preference, that means Urias has got to go.

There are a couple of other small moves that could be made, but starting with these three, Houston would shave $15.7 million off its books, giving the club $26.7 million in breathing room.

The Astros need to trade Christian Walker, even if it means eating half of his contract

Christian Walker is due $20 million in 2026 and another $20 million in 2027. When you combine that with the $10 million Isaac Paredes is projected to get in arbitration and the $21.5 million that Carlos Correa will cost towards the tax, you not only have a logjam, but a very expensive one at that. $51.5 million is an eye-watering amount for one of these guys to spend the majority of his time on the bench, so a trade is necessary.

Unfortunately, Walker woefully underperformed, so he's not been moved without Houston sending significant money along with him, and the dream of getting a top prospect in return is nothing more than a fantasy.

However, outside of Pete Alonso and Josh Naylor, the free-agent first base market is unappetizing to say the least, and clubs have grown wary of paying big money over long-term deals to first basemen. There's also a way to sell Walker, too.

Despite his struggles, Walker still finished the year with 27 homers and posted a .799 OPS in the second half. He previously had a down year in 2021 when he posted a .244/.315/.382 line and rebounded the following year with a 36-homer performance. If he did it once, maybe the Astros can convince another team he can do it again, especially since he was better down the stretch.

Sending as little money as possible is ideal, but let's say, for the sake of argument, Houston eats half the contract, which will free up an additional $10 million for 2026. Now the club would have $36.7 million open to make some moves.

These could be the Astros' next big moves

Starting pitching is priority number one, as the Astros' rotation behind Hunter Brown is currently Jason Alexander, Cristian Javier, AJ Blubaugh, and Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers Jr. can't be anywhere near regular innings after his 2025 showing. Alexander is a journeyman depth arm, at best. And Javier and Blubaugh have some upside, but should only be counted on as back-of-the-rotation options until proven otherwise.

Houston doesn't have the money to bring back Valdez or make a move to bring in someone at the very top of the market, but a rebound candidate like Zac Gallen makes a lot of sense.

Gallen posted an uncharacteristically poor campaign in 2025, with a 4.83 ERA, a much higher than average home run rate of 1.45 HR/9, and saw his strikeouts decline from 9.47 K/9 for his career to 8.20 in 2025.

Still, there's reason to believe he can bounce back. Spotrac puts his market value at a four-year, $74.8 million deal, which comes out to an AAV of $18.7 million. Such a signing would leave Houston with another $18 million to fill out the rest of the roster before hitting the tax line.

Another arm in the rotation would still be necessary, and given the limited funds, the Astros would have to take a gamble. A player who makes sense is Tyler Mahle of the rival Texas Rangers. Mahle has dealt with significant arm troubles in recent years, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023 and then missing nearly half the 2025 campaign with a rotator cuff strain, but when healthy, he's been an effective mid-rotation starter at minimum.

Injury notwithstanding, Mahle was putting together his best year by far with a 2.18 ERA over 16 starts and 86.2 innings. True talent-wise, though, he's probably closer to his career mark of 4.07 than that rarified air.

Injury notwithstanding, Mahle was putting together his best year by far with a 2.18 ERA over 16 starts and 86.2 innings. True talent-wise, though, he's probably closer to his career mark of 4.07 than that rarified air.

At this point, Houston would have $12.5 million remaining in the budget to sprinkle around to fill out the fringes of the roster. They could use some to bring back Victor Caratini, target another bullpen arm, or look at another outfield bat. None of what they do with the remaining $12.5 million would have the greatest impact in the world, but it would help to improve the depth.