Astros trade deadline gamble backfired and could haunt their 2026 plans

The Houston Astros took some big swings at the trade deadline, most of which looked good at the time, but ultimately wound up with mixed results. With the benefit of hindsight, the Jesús Sanchez trade was a complete flop. Ramon Urias was proven to be superfluous with Mauricio Dubón already on the roster, making Carlos Correa the de facto best move of the trade season.

The move was splashy and the reunion delighted fans. Correa's performance wasn't bad, posting a .290/.355/.430 line since returning to Houston, but the prodigal son's power dropped off, and in its totality, his play was merely above average and not enough to will the Astros to the playoffs.

The Astros will pay for the Carlos Correa trade in 2026 and beyond

Last offseason, despite what owner Jim Crane will tell you, the luxury tax threshold of $241 million loomed large in Houston's decision-making. That's the reason why they let Alex Bregman walk. It's the reason why they dealt Kyle Tucker. And it's the reason why they didn't add a veteran starter or two to fill out the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez.

Instead, with the signing of Christian Walker, the Astros toed right up to the line, but didn't cross it. Unfortunately, it's not the payroll you begin the season with that matters, but rather how you end it. For Houston, their $245,429,602 final expenditure means that at the end of the day, they did end up crossing the line, if only by a hair.

That, of course, leads to the question of why not begin the season that way? If the Astros were going to cross the threshold anyway, why not do it early in the hopes of picking up a couple of extra wins in the first half. After all, those victories in April and May mean just as much as the ones in August and September when all is said and done.

Moving forward to 2026, it's hard to imagine Houston not operating with a similar plan. They'll likely want to get back into contention, but will do everything in their power to steer clear of the luxury tax line. However, thanks to Correa, it will be more difficult.

The Astros are desperate to shed Walker's money from their books after a disappointing first season in the Space City. That was true before the Correa trade, and it is doubly true now. That won't be an easy task, however.

In acquiring Correa, they also acquired the rest of his contract. The deal was originally six years, $200 million, and has three years remaining before a series of multiple vesting options. The Minnesota Twins will be covering $33 million of what is owed to Correa, but that still leaves Houston with a $21.2 million hit towards the luxury tax for 2026. That charge runs every season through 2028.

The Astros will be shedding the $18 million they paid Framber Valdez in 2025, but with no suitable in-house replacement and a need for additional quality starters in the rotation, that savings doesn't offset anything.

Meanwhile, barring a miraculous trade partner appearing out of nowhere for Walker, the Astros have created a logjam in the infield. Between Correa, Walker, and the healthy return of Isaac Paredes, they'll have three players for two spots, two of which are making over $20 million per season.

Beyond the rotation, there are several other critical needs that must be addressed, and Correa's presence will make them more difficult to address.

Lastly, there are questions about how much they can count on Correa to be productive and available moving forward. Correa's career lately has been defined by injuries, and he won't get any more durable as he advances through his 30s. Furthermore, he's been inconsistent with the bat offensively, with wRC+ numbers of 94, 154, and 106 over the last three seasons.

Correa was the splashy move, but he wasn't able to get the job done in 2025. Now his presence on the roster will only make it more difficult to figure out the glut in the infield while addressing other urgent needs as the club seeks to return to contention. The Astros might end up regretting this reunion for years to come.