6 contracts that could hold the Astros back in 2026 and beyond

The Houston Astros have a lot of work ahead of them, and thanks to missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016, they've gotten a head start on making their offseason plans. The first order of business is deciding what kind of team they want to be in 2026. Do they try to run it back with a few periphery additions and the hope of better health? Or do they decide to accept their fate and blow it up in order to begin the process of building anew?

Determining the fate of general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada seems to have been checked off the list. Now, with the baseball leadership allegedly in place, Brown will have the unenviable task of charting the course for the future while navigating some onerous contracts that will certainly hold the team back.

With owner Jim Crane controlling the purse strings, the luxury tax threshold is an ever-present concern, and these six deals will take a big bite out of the Astros' wiggle room. In some cases, they are unmovable, too.

Note: Contracts can have variable salaries from year to year. The average annual value is what is used to calculate the impact on the luxury tax, so for remaining contract numbers, the AAV per season will be listed alongside the total value remaining on the deal.

Six contracts that threaten to hold the Astros back in 2026 and beyond

Starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. - five years $85 million

Remaining: one year, $17 million

Through the first four years of Lance McCullers Jr.'s extension, the Astros have gotten just 103 innings out of the once-promising right-hander. The line of demarcation is clear: a 2.27 ERA in 2022 prior to his devastating injury, and a 6.51 mark following his 2025 return.

Obviously, this isn't McCullers Jr.'s fault. No one could have foreseen his injury occurring. What is clear, however, is that he can't be counted on in 2026, and while the contract mercifully ends at the end of next season, his presence on the roster will hinder the Astros from signing players to multi-year deals this offseason.

First baseman Christian Walker - three years $60 million

Remaining: two years, $40 million - $20 million per year

If you wanted to, you could squint and look at Christian Walker's .799 OPS in the second half and talk yourself into the idea that maybe he'll bounce back in 2026. You'd have to ignore his 33% strikeout rate in September and the fact that he got his production in drastically different ways in July compared to August, calling into question how real it was. But if you want to put your rose-colored glasses on, fine.

The larger issue is that Walker's presence creates a logjam at the corner infield spots. Houston desperately wants to move Walker in a trade, but his limited no-trade clause further limits his already small pool of potential suitors, regardless of how much money the club eats.

Second baseman/left fielder Jose Altuve - five years $125 million

Remaining: four years, $100 million - $25 million per year

While Jose Altuve signed his Astro-for-life extension in February of 2024, it didn't actually take effect until this season. At the time of the signing, Altuve had come off a two-year stretch that, by wRC+ (164 in 2022, 154 in 2023) that marked his best offensive performance since his MVP season in 2017. Sure, the Astros knew that signing him through his age-39 season would end poorly, but they thought they had more time before the bottom started to fall out.

Altuve saw a drop in 2024, finishing the season with a 127 wRC+, which, while still good, also came with defensive declines. 2025 saw another step back with a 113 mark. A closer look at his 2025 numbers shows that things are about to get worse still. Save for his incredibly hot July when Altuve posted a 189 performance, he performed like an average or worse hitter for the other five months of the season, with monthly wRC+ numbers ranging from 107 all the way down to 90.

Of all the big-money contracts Houston has on its books, not one lasts longer than Altuve's. That's just the price you pay to lock up the face of the franchise long-term.

Third baseman Carlos Correa - six years $200 million + four vesting options from 2029 through 2032

Remaining: three years, $63.6 million not including options - $21.2 million per year

Both the largest and most complicated deal of the bunch, there's a lot going on with Correa. Thanks to the Minnesota Twins paying down $33 million of the money owed, the hit drops from $33.3 million a year down to a hair below $21.2 million. Still, that's a sizeable amount for an injury-prone player who played well, but not like the superstar he's being paid to be.

The future impact becomes even more profound if those options vest. The conditions are varied, but essentially, they get picked up if Correa reaches a plate appearance threshold or wins one of several different individual awards. Should the vest, it would add up to another $70 million to the total expenditure.

Closer Josh Hader - five years $95 million

Remaining: three years, $57 million - $19 million per year

The Astros have already started to regret the Josh Hader contract, with him posting a subpar year in 2024 and then following that up with a season-ending injury in 2025 despite a bounce-back in performance. The whole exercise has been an example of why big-money, long-term deals to closers rarely work out.

Hader may stay healthy and productive for the remaining three years on the deal, but with Bryan Abreu and Bryan King already there handling late-inning situations well, $19 million a season for a closer doesn't seem to be an overly wise use of resources.

Starting pitcher Cristian Javier - five years $64 million

Remaining: two years, $42.8 million - $12.8 million per year

Cristian Javier's deal is a perfect example of exploding salaries not lining up with the luxury tax hit. When Houston locked up Javier, they bought out his three arbitration years plus the first two free-agent years. We've just completed the arbitration years with 2025 now in the books, so the real-world money going to Javier is significantly higher at $21.4 million per year, representing what the club thought Javier's worth would be on the open market at this point in time.

That looks like a gross miscalculation at this point. While Javier falls into the McCullers Jr. camp with a devastating injury robbing him of significant time, 2023, his last full healthy year showed the red flags that exist as he posted a 4.56 ERA. There's a shot he gets better in 2026 as he gets further removed from his Tommy John surgery, but his 4.62 ERA in 2025 wasn't encouraging.

Javier will be a part of this rotation, but with both injury and performance concerns, what he can be counted on for his a serious question. Bottom line, Houston might have been able to break his money apart and spend it on two or three impact players. Instead, it will all go to a back-end starter.