3 Astros 2026 draft targets that could get their farm system back on track, 2 that would not

The Houston Astros entered the 2026 season with the 29th-ranked farm system in the league and without a single top 100 prospect, per MLB Pipeline. The pipeline is affected by both a lack of depth and a lack of top-end talent, and it's a real problem. Eventually, the Astros will realize that their window has closed and they'll need reinforcements from the farm. In the meantime, a barren system means few assets to continue gearing up to contend down the stretch.

Since the season kicked off, there haven't been any developments to really change the perception. Walker Janek came in looking to prove himself, and then fell flat on his face with a .135/.179/.216 line and a 35.9% strikeout rate in his first taste of Double-A action at Corpus Christi before going down with a hamstring injury.

Ethan Frey got off to a slow start after an encouraging pro debut following his selection in the third round of last year's draft. The LSU product looked like he could be a fast riser, but the slow start at Asheville put a damper on things. He did begin to turn things around, but his strikes remained elevated. Just like Janek, he's now out of action, nursing a sore hamstring.

Meanwhile, the last piece that provides hope for the future, last year's first Xavier Neyens, has been up and down in his pro debut. It's too early to write any of these youngsters off yet (though we're getting close in Janek's case), but even if they all turn a corner, more is needed.

The Astros have both the 17th and 28th picks in the July 11 first round, the second one coming via the Prospect Promotion Incentive thanks to Hunter Brown's top-three Cy Young finish last season. That presents them with an incredible opportunity to revamp the farm system, but only if they choose wisely.

Three MLB draft prospects that will boost the Astros farm system's outlook

AJ Gracia - Outfielder - University of Virginia

AJ Gracia has been a favorite of ours and after producing a .354/.489/.632 line this season for the University of Virginia, it's easy to see why. Most evaluators have him in the 15-20 range on their big boards, but his upside might be beyond that as he earned the No. 2 spot on FanGraphs' big board.

Bottom line, he's a lefty-swinger with 30 homer potential, who can hit the ball to all fields, and has no real holes in his offensive game. As a polished college hitter, he has both the upside and high floor that Houston needs.

Ace Reese - Third basemen - Mississippi State University

Beginning his career in the Astros' backyard at the University of Houston, Ace Reese transferred to Mississippi State University for his final two collegiate seasons, hitting a combined 45 homers. 2026 was arguably his best campaign, slashing .336/.432/.721 with a career-best 24 long balls.

Similar to Gracia, he is a lefty bat with power to all fields and, of course, that polished college pedigree. Some have criticized him for being overaggressive, though he raised his walk rate to 14% in 2026. Lastly, there's doubt that he can stick at the hot corner defensively, with first base or left field being potential landing spots. For a Houston club that has long-term question marks at both of those positions, that shouldn't be much of a drawback.

Liam Peterson - Starting pitcher - University of Florida

The Astros haven't invested a first-round pick in a pitcher since J.B. Bakaukas in 2017, and it shows in the lack of high-end pitching talent in the system. Liam Peterson from the University of Florida might be just the perfect option to buck that trend.

Despite starting for the majority of his three seasons in Gainesville, Peterson is more of a project than the two hitters on this list. Still, based on stuff, he'd go much higher, as Jonathan Mayo notes in his latest mock draft that had Peterson as Houston's pick. The Astros have more hope on the hitter side of things, so infusing talent into the minor league pitchers via Peterson and taking a little bit more of a gamble for a high-upside arm still makes sense.

Two MLB Draft prospects who the Astros must avoid

Tyler Bell - Shortstop - University of Kentucky

There are a lot of folks who like University of Kentucky product Tyler Bell, and he could be in range for the Astros' pick at 17, though Keith Law has him ranked much higher, coming in at No. 3 on his big board.

There's a good chance that Bell, who was selected in the second round by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2024 draft but decided to go to college instead, could be a very good big leaguer. He has virtually no weaknesses, but with that comes a lower ceiling than others the Astros could select. He could be a solid defender with 20 homers and a high OBP at the shortstop position. But he could just as easily be a utility man. The Astros need juice, and Bell might not have enough.

Justin Lebron - Shortstop - University of Alabama

University of Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron has the potential to be one of the most dynamic players in the class. There are some who believe that he has 30-30 upside and could become an electric power-speed threat at a premium position, one in which the Astros will need an eventual successor for Jeremy Peña.

Lebron hit .277/.386/.534 with 16 homers this season, but against higher-level SEC competition, he hit just .229/.328/.413. Making consistent contact is an issue for the 21-year-old, and it could mute his otherwise loud tools. He's the definition of boom-or-bust, and that's a gamble the Astros just can't afford to take.

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