Top Astros draft pick’s struggles in minors are concerning, but one skill is truly shining

A struggling farm system means that every box score becomes something of a Rorschach test. You can squint at Xavier Neyens’ stat line in A-ball and read whatever your heart desires about one of the Houston Astros top prospects (#2 on MLB Pipeline, #1 on Baseball America).  The 33.1 percent strikeout rate is rough. But that 22.6 percent walk rate is mighty tasty looking, too. 

That’s a lot of at bats ending without putting a bat on the ball for someone who was given more than $4 million in a signing bonus last year, but this is sort of what was expected. And it’s probably worth noting that he’s quietly doing exceptionally well. 

Just to set the table, Neyens is 19 and was selected with the 21st pick in last year’s draft out of Mount Vernon High in Washington. As we mentioned, he ranks as one of the top two prospects in the Astros system, depending on which site you prefer. He was actually the first high school position player the Astros have selected in quite some time, so it’s a different thought process here. But he’s also the exact kind of high-ceiling lottery ticket a system this thin desperately needs to rise up the rankings.

The pre-draft book on him wasn’t all that different than you see from lots of players. He has massive left-handed power, a very patient eye, and a hit tool that isn’t what you love in a first-round pick. Scouts projected the power, but did flag the swing-and-miss in his game. One comp that was thrown out was Joey Gallo, which is pretty interesting given what Gallo was. Another comp mentioned Austin Riley as a top outcome, which also makes some sense. 

So far that description looks apt. The strikeouts are undoubtedly there for him, but so are the walks. One of the knocks on him pre-draft was a hint at passivity. This is apparent in a lot of prospects similar to Neyens in that their eye is so good that they will take hittable pitches in the hopes of getting even more hittable pitches. Well, that’s not the greatest solution, especially in the low minors because sometimes the pitchers they’re facing won’t get back in the area code of the zone during that plate appearance. So while he’s drawn walks at an elite level, some of that might be due to being unwilling to take advantage of hitter’s counts before getting to ball four. 

Xavier Neyens’ strikeouts are loud, but the plate discipline is the real story

At the same time, his OBP is sitting at .418 through the weekend. It’s hard to be upset by that. That’s something that Astros fans should love. And even though the average has cooled a bit, he’s also not swinging and missing nearly as much as expected with just a 9.3 percent swinging strike rate. A teenager who refuses to chase is a good thing. And even though the power has cooled some, it’s still very clearly there.

The underlying details that also help are that he doesn’t swing at many pitches at all with that low swinging-strike rate. That’s an indication that the strikeouts are coming from a discerning approach rather than a hole in his swing. Aggressiveness can be taught, but the ability to catch up to velocity and just make contact can be a little tougher. One gets ironed out with reps while the other ends careers in AA.

High school picks are inherently risky. But the strikeouts in particular aren’t really a reason to panic just yet, and that’s especially true with such a high walk rate. He’s facing pitchers who are generally older than him (not all, but many). So the strikeouts aren’t a flashing red light or anything. Yes, the power has come back to earth some, but he’s still ranked 87 on Baseball America’s latest top-100 update. For a system without much help, that’s a win.

The development questions that matter for him were never about if he’d strike out. Everyone knew he would. What they weren’t sure about is whether his ability to make contact would tick up enough to let his big power actually play. And if he can stick at third, which so far, so good, that’s huge. The walks are the genuinely advanced skill he has, so he’s in great shape to this point even though some of the numbers aren’t as pretty as you might want.

This is a system where 2024’s first round pick, Walker Janek, has cratered, and the depth behind Neyens and Kevin Alvarez gets real thin, real fast. It would be easy to let one ugly-looking peripheral become a verdict on a player, but that’s not wise. The strikeouts are the cost of doing business with his profile, but the walks are where it all pays off. For a teenager at this level, the correct reaction to his line is much more patience than worry. And maybe a little bit of excitement because that patience is real and spectacular.

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