Latest MLB Pipeline mock draft has Astros going in a different (and welcome) direction

Throughout the Dana Brown era, college bats in the first round of the MLB Draft have primarily been the Houston Astros' jam. They veered slightly off that path last season, but still looked for offense by selecting high school shortstop Xavier Neyens 21st overall. In fact, the last time the Astros picked a pitcher in the first round was nearly a decade ago, when they picked J.B. Bukaukas in the first round of the 2017 draft.

So while many mock drafts have followed Houston's tendencies and had them landing a bat, most often AJ Gracia, a player who we love from the University of Virginia, it's undeniable that the pitching pipeline needs a lot of love.

The latest mock draft from MLB.com's resident gurus, Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis, has the Astros finally making that pivot, selecting University of Florida starter Liam Peterson with the 18th pick.

Liam Peterson is a high-risk, high-reward arm who could be just what the Astros' system needs

Hunter Brown aside, Houston really hasn't had much luck developing young arms recently. AJ Blubaugh has become a reliever with decent results, but has a bit of a walk problem. The bottom has fallen out on Spencer Arrighetti lately. We'll see what the recently-called-up Miguel Ullola can bring to the table, though his 5.48 ERA, 6.61 BB/9, and 1.51 HR/9 aren't very encouraging and he is slated to be a bullpen option as well.

While it's true that there are some intriguing hurlers in the system, the ceilings are all still pretty low. That's what happens when the farm is ranked in the cellar of the league, and the bats outpace the arms.

Defending the pick of Peterson for the mock, Mayo wrote, "I think they're going to go Liam Peterson, who pure-stuff-wise belongs higher than this, but performance-and-command-wise, this is about where you start hearing his name more."

Meanwhile, the scouting report from Baseball America (subscription required) for the big right-hander reads like a dream. They note his four-pitch repertoire that includes a fastball that sits 95 and can touch 99 miles per hour. On the secondary-stuff front, he's got a sharp slider that bites down and two his glove side and a superb fading changeup that he uses against lefties, both of which have posted whiff rates above 40%. Rounding things out is a show-me curveball that serves as a change-of-pace, but isn't much of a weapon.

Take that arsenal and wrap it up in a six-foot-five frame, and it's not hard to connect the dots to ace-hood.

However, Peterson's numbers in Gainesville aren't quite as rosy. He struck out 30.2% of batters and finally got his walk rate under 10% (barely, at 9.8%), but he still gave up too many free passes en route to a 4.59 ERA this season.

Command and consistency are going to be the biggest kinks he'll need to iron out, so if he is the pick, don't expect him to fly through the system. The 21-year-old will need some time, but his potential is off the charts. That ceiling is what would differentiate him from all of the mid-round picks and $100,000 or less IFA signings that populate the pitching side of the Astros' top 30 prospect rankings. Gambling that Peterson reaches it seems wise through that lens.

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