Up-and-coming Astros arm named top 2025 breakout candidate after rotten luck in 2024

Much has been made of the Houston Astros' lineup, and where everyone will be playing in the field this spring, but the rotation is arguably more questionable. Between losing Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi in free agency, as well as the injury issues with Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, there are some real questions surrouding the Astros' pitching depth.

Houston's rotation does have some positive momentum. Framber Valdez is likely to be excellent yet again and he should be extra motivated in 2025 as this is his contract-year. Hunter Brown appears to have the makings of being a front-of-the-rotation arm assuming he can replicate his gains from last season. Ronel Blanco has been electric on the mound and should be accustomed to the workload of being a starter.

But one name that is a bit more speculative is Spencer Arrighetti. His first season in the big leagues was a bit of a rollercoaster, but The Athletic's Eno Sarris seems to think that he could be one of MLB's breakout starting pitchers in 2025.

Astros' Spencer Arrighetti could break out in a big way in 2025

On the surface, Arrighetti's profile doesn't scream "breakout" necessarily. He will certainly have some games where he looks dominant, but his 4.53 ERA and disappointing walk rate that ranks in the 21st percentile in all of baseball leaves a lot to be desired.

However, Sarris correctly notes that if you are betting on a pitcher to break out, identifying players who strike out a lot of batters is a good place to start. With 171 strikeouts in 145 innings of work, Arrighetti certainly qualifies there. Arrighetti had some rotten batted ball luck too, and given that he was never really a pitcher who had home run issues in the minors, his middling batted ball metrics should improve in 2025.

That brings us back to the issues with walks and that is where things get a bit more speculative. While the number of walks were certainly a problem (65 walks in 145 innings is no bueno), Sarris indicates that those sorts of issues should improve in his second season while noting that most projection systems are predicting Arrighetti to rein in the free passes a bit.

Assuming things do align for Arrighetti in 2025, there is no denying that this next season could represent a massive improvement over last season. However, he has to make improvements with the things he can control and then hope to get some better BABIP luck for that to actually happen.

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