It's revisionist history at this point, but the moment that Nolan Arenado rejected the Houston Astros' bid to acquire his services this offseason was the point in time when Dana Brown pivoted to Plan B.
By now, every Astros fan knows that Houston was close to trading for Arenado this offseason. The St. Louis Cardinals were (and probably still are) desperate to offload contracts this winter, and after Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras turned their noses up to the idea of playing elsewhere, Cardinals president John Mozeliak honed in on Arenado.
The 10-time Gold Glove Award winner is owed $73 million over the next three seasons, and in order to jumpstart St. Louis' rebuild, Mozeliak was hoping to shop Arenado to the highest bidder. Spring training has now begun and Arenado is still a member of the Cardinals. So what really happened?
Trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs crushed the hopes of an Astros-Cardinals deal Nolan Arenado
According to The Athletic, the Astros' failed attempt to acquire Arenado boiled down to little more than inconvenient timing. What? That's right, had the Astros and Cardinals talked sooner, Arenado may playing pepper on the back fields in West Palm Beach right now.
Katie Woo of The Athletic reported that as many as nine teams inquired about Arenado this offseason, but outside of the Astros (and the Boston Red Sox), no team came close to a deal. The Astros' talks with the Cards were rumored to be at the one-yard line, but Arenado said, no.
.@katiejwoo of @CardTerritory says that a Nolan Arenado trade could still happen 🐦 pic.twitter.com/8Umy9jScwC
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) February 20, 2025
However, the move that allowed Houston to even consider a deal for Arenado was also the one that spelled their demise. According to Woo, the day after the MLB Winter Meetings, Houston became a serious suitor for Arenado. But the Astros had a problem; they just traded away their best player.
Arenado's hesitancy to leave St. Louis for Houston stemmed from the perception that the Astros were moving in the wrong direction. He vetoed the trade, and the Astros immediately pivoted to sign Christian Walker. Had the Astros and Cardinals worked out a deal for Arenado before trading Tucker, it sounds like there was a strong possibility that the eight-time All-Star would have said, yes.