Yainer Diaz’s arbitration may accelerate Astros’ timeline for first round pick

Yainer Diaz was already a bit of a question mark coming out of the 2025 season. The Houston Astros' catcher was thought to be a budding young star behind the plate, but the defense was lacking and his offensive prowess took a bit of a step back last season. For some, parting ways with Diaz based on those merits alone could be in the cards.

Diaz's place on the Astros' roster has appeared to be safe, for now. But after the arbitration filing deadline came and went without an agreement for Diaz, the impending trip to the hearing could start Houston down a path that leans heavily on catching prospect Walker Janek.

Yainer Diaz is getting more expensive, and the Astros may need to turn to Walker Janek sooner than they thought

Janek isn't going to get called up to the big leagues in 2025. Diaz still has real value behind the plate, and whether he gets $4.5 million (his arbitration filing figure) or $3 million (the Astros' number), he isn't making so much money to require a decision. Diaz's arbitration clock, however, is beginning to count down and one has to wonder exactly how much the Astros are going to be willing to pay a catcher that is a net negative defensively behind the plate — especially if Diaz's bat does not rebound.

Conversely, the Astros have been in love with Janek since before they drafted him, in part, due to his leadership and toughness. He is a surefire catcher that embraces all parts of the job even if his bat doesn't have the same upside that Diaz's does. It certainly doesn't hurt Janek's case that he made strong adjustments at the plate in 2025 and looked good down in the Arizona Fall League.

The good news here is that the Astros have time to think through their options and focus. In the short-term, other more pressing questions are at hand — like Isaac Paredes' future. Janek isn't quite ready and Diaz is still more than worth what he is going to take home in salary this coming season. What happens after that, though, could involve making a change at catcher especially if Janek plays well in the minors.