Astros can’t keep ignoring the warning signs in Yainer Diaz’s swing decisions

It's doubtful that Houston Astros catcher Yainer Diaz has ever heard the words, "Take your base," from the home plate umpire — at least not when he's in the batters' box. The Astros backstop has never seen a pitch he didn't like, and that a problem that the Houston coaching staff has to get under control if Diaz is every going to realize his true potential.

There's a lot of blue on Diaz's Baseball Savant page these days. For those unfamiliar, that's very much not a good thing. But two of the biggest problems to emerge from a deeper dive into Diaz's stats are his chase rate and walk rate. Both statistics put the Astros' catcher in the 6th percentile or lower, and Diaz is actually at the very bottom of the league with a 43.3% chase rate.

It's not as if this hasn't be a problem in the past. Even when Diaz was hitting well last season, his chase rate (42.6%) and walk rate (3.9%) were among the worst in baseball. These stats are easy to overlook when you're hitting close to .300 like Diaz was in 2024, but are magnified when scratching out a meager .187 batting average and .521 OPS. These numbers reveal a gargantuan problem with Diaz's pitch selection, and it's something that he and the coaching staff need to iron out, and pronto.

Astros can’t keep ignoring the warning signs in Yainer Diaz’s swing decisions

If you're looking for another absurd stat that will blow your mind, take a look at Diaz's pitches per plate appearance (Pit/PA). It's a little used stat that tells you a lot and is exactly what it means — how many pitches a player sees per plate appearance. Diaz has a 3.41 PitPA. For context, Jeremy Peña, who's also regarded as an aggressive hitter, has a 3.79 Pit/PA. Isaac Paredes, arguably Houston's most patient hitter, has a career 4.21 Pit/PA.

It's easy to see why Diaz's ultra-aggressive approach at the dish can be incredibly harmful. Rather than just carelessly swinging at every pitch near the strike zone, Diaz needs to concentrate on hunting his pitch. Historically, Diaz has been about average when it comes to hitting the fastball, but is a good breaking ball hitter. Though it's not always a good strategy to hunt breaking balls — oftentimes because they drop outside the strike zone — that may be Diaz's strong suit.

No matter the formula, it's imperative for the Astros coaching staff to find a way to encourage Diaz to take more pitches. The young backstop has All-Star potential, but he'll never reach it without a firmer understanding of the strike zone and how to get on base without swinging the bat.

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