Rumored Yusei Kikuchi landing spots call Astros’ deadline strategy into question

The Houston Astros are inevitably going to look like a very different team in 2025. Even in the world that the Astros do successfully re-sign Alex Bregman, the team is clearly rethinking their outfield plans for next season, as well as possibly trading some big names such as Ryan Pressly in order to trim their payroll down a bit.

Another decision that seems to have been made is to move on from Yusei Kikuchi.

At the trade deadline, the Astros made what looked like a very puzzling trade for Kikuchi. However, the sentiment around the trade quickly changed when Houston seemed untouchable when he pitched, and he started getting much better results after making a couple of adjustments to his pitch usage.

That said, there has been little in the way of chatter that Houston is even entertaining bringing Kikuchi back this offseason. While that is likely a product of their focus on bringing back Bregman, the development of Kikuchi's market and potential suitors suggests that the Astros' trade for Kikuchi at the deadline remains a tough sell. In essence, they appear to have unlocked him for someone else, without a ring (or ALDS berth, even) to show for it.

Yusei Kikuchi is likely to head to a team that could hurt the Astros long-term after Houston spent big to trade for him

While the free agent market has yet to fully reveal itself, one thing that is clear is that everyone may have underestimated how in-demand Kikuchi was going to be this offseason. Because he was not eligible to receive a qualifying offer, all of the teams that normally don't like to give up draft picks are a lot more interested. So are the predictable contenders that just want roster upgrades, regardless of the consequences.

So far, teams that have been named as potential landing spots for Kikuchi include the Rangers, Red Sox, Twins, Orioles, and Tigers, among others. Not only does that list include a bitter division rival in Texas, but that is five American League contenders who could get a boost to their rotations from Kikuchi and make Houston's path through future playoff series more problematic.

What is most annoying about this is that Kikuchi improving after the trade, only to immediately leave, makes the price the Astros paid feel bad all over again. Sure, Kikuchi helped the cause as a rental in 2024. Great, but giving up prospects Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner just isn't the package one gives up for a rental unless it is for a bona fide star, and even that is debatable. Houston mortgaged their future, failed to make a deep playoff run, and now are going to be left with nothing to show for it, other than Kikuchi potentially pitching well elsewhere thanks to Houston's coaching.

Perhaps the Astros know something about Kikuchi again that no one else does. Maybe they don't think that the adjustments he made will stick long-term, or they just don't think he will age well. Perhaps they just don't want to negotiate with too many Boras clients which is, frankly, pretty fair. Whatever the reasoning, losing Kikuchi this offseason does indeed make their trade deadline deal for him look worse, especially given where he could be headed.

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