Proposed Cody Bellinger trade to Astros has a number of problems

We are officially in Alex Bregman contingency plan season when it comes to predicting how the Houston Astros offseason will go. It is entirely possible that the Astros could lure Bregman back, but it is far from a sure thing, and the rumor mill suggests that Houston is hedging their bets and exploring other options if he leaves. One name that has gained a lot of steam lately is Cubs star Cody Bellinger.

Trading for Bellinger isn't an uninteresting notion. He is obviously a very talented player with Rookie of the Year and MVP awards on his mantle and, in a world where the Astros don't keep Bregman, adding a high-upside bat is going to become a pretty high priority.

Recently, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel again posited a Bellinger trade as a fit for the Astros. While there is a world where trading for Bellinger makes sense, it remains decidedly unclear if that is the best course of action for Dana Brown and the front office this offseason.

Trading for Cody Bellinger could work, but the Astros should explore other options first

Yes, Bellinger has shown the ability to be an impact bat in the big leagues and he can play multiple positions, which would be nice, given the Astros' roster needs in the outfield and at first base. However, the last few years have raised a number of red flags when it comes to Bellinger. His hit tool was unplayably bad in 2021 and 2022 when he was with the Dodgers.

After joining the Cubs in 2023, he put together a strong season by the numbers, including an .881 OPS. However, he still wasn't hitting the ball hard consistently, and the expected regression in his numbers came in 2024, given that his batted ball profile never improved. Chicago still thought enough of his 2023 performance to give him a multi-year deal afterwards, but the concerns about Bellinger's future projection existed then and remain a problem now. There's a reason they're already trying to move off him.

Another issue with a potential Bellinger trade is exactly how much of his contract each side is willing to pay. The Cubs definitely want to move him, but they would prefer to get a big chunk of his salary covered. That might be a problem for Houston, especially if they have some reservations as to whether or not Bellinger will truly be the impact bat they want/need.

McDaniel proposed a trade for an unnamed second-tier prospect or two, in addition to Chicago covering $10 million. That would leave Houston on the hook for $17.5 million in 2025; then, they'd either need to accept the possibility that Bellinger exercises his $25 million player option in 2026, or pay him a $5 million buyout if he doesn't.

At that price point of at least $22.5 million and potentially a lot more, and with all of Bellinger's baked-in uncertainty, it seems like Houston would be better served to address first base with another short-term option like Carlos Santana, and then maybe push hard for Willy Adames if Bregman indeed walks.

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