In a perfect world, the Houston Astros would have a set of roster needs that no other team has, and they could have the market to themselves. Instead of having to bid against the Dodgers and Mets of the world who like to throw crazy sums of money at their problems, the Astros could judiciously go through the available free agents and make fair offers to the ones they like.
Unfortunately, that is most certainly not the case with the Astros and the first base market this offseason. They're going to run into hefty roadblocks.
Unlike in a lot of years, there are actually several interesting free agent first basemen available right now. The Astros have liked Pete Alonso in the past, and while most still think he will land back with the Mets, it has been suspiciously quiet in New York lately when it comes to their incumbent Polar Bear. The free agent with the best combination of upside/potential cost is Christian Walker who Houston has been connected to as well, but his market has proven to be rather robust.
Another available 1B that has gotten helium lately is Carlos Santana, who had a bit of a career renaissance in 2024 despite getting long in the tooth. However, Santana's market also comes with a problem, as it sounds like the division rival Mariners are in pursuit of a reunion here.
Carlos Santana would be a great fit for the Astros, but the Mariners pose a real obstacle to that this offseason
The Astros have been loosely connected to Santana this offseason as a veteran option at first base who won't require an expensive or long-term deal, which is right up Houston's alley. However, the Mariners have been viewed as the Astros' chief competition in the first base market from the beginning, especially outside the top tier.
Unfortunately, Santana does seem to be a very "Mariners" move to make. Not only is Seattle familiar with him from his time with the team in 2022, but the Mariners are likely to be constrained financially this offseason, and adding Santana would be a cost-effective way for them to try and add some much-needed offense.
There isn't anything the Astros can do about it, especially with the Alex Bregman talks looming over them. If Bregman walks, it is more likely that they can pivot to a more expensive option like Walker. If Bregman stays, then a guy like Santana is far more likely.
Whether or not the market waits around for Houston is the real question, and if Seattle has their way, the Astros may just have to pick from who is left.