Ranking the Top Potential Free Agent Signings for the Astros

4) J.D. Martinez

"Fool me one time, shame on you. Fool me two times, shame on me."

J.D. Martinez fooled the Houston Astros during his initial tenure here. In his three seasons in Houston, Martinez hit .251 with a .687 OPS, prompting then GM Jeff Luhnow (having overlooked the swing changes Martinez made in the offseason) to waive the outfielder going into his age-26 season.

Since overhauling his swing and leaving Houston, Martinez has hit .295 with a .910 OPS and 258 home runs, making five All-Star teams and winning three Silver Sluggers.

The former Astro wrapped 2022 with a .274 batting average, .790 OPS, 16 home runs and a career-high 43 doubles. He may never again hit 40 home runs, though his 16 bombs jump to 26 playing his home games in Minute Maid Park, but he is a massive upgrade for the Astros at Designated Hitter. Their DH woes were well-documented. Entering Game 6 of the World Series, Houston still had no surefire candidate.

With Yordan Alvarez "trending" to be the Astros everyday Left Fielder, Houston shouldn't get fooled again. Martinez still brings a big bat to the table, finishing the year in the 87th percentile in xSLG and 84th percentile in xwOBA. He would totally absolve the Astros' issues at DH.

The only downside with Martinez is his complete lack of a glove. He played 139 games in 2022 and all 139 were at DH. By signing Martinez, the Astros lose the DH rest day and Alvarez would be forced to not just be the primary left fielder, but to be the only option.

His lack of versatility makes one DH option (later to come) a more appealing candidate, but Martinez' offensive ability would take the Astros lineup back to the level we saw it function from 2017-2019.

3) Andrew Chafin

Andrew Chafin has been discussed as a potential Astros' reliever for multiple years now. His name has popped up as a rumored deadline acquisition, but there may be no more fitting time than now for the Astros to strike, as signing Chafin won't cost them valuable prospect capital.

Manager Dusty Baker's desire for a lefty or two in the bullpen is no secret by now. Yes, Blake Taylor should be back next year, but Chafin would be able to fill Dusty's token lefty role and then some. The fastball/slider specialist finished 2022 with a 2.83 ERA in 57.1 innings. He actually posted reverse splits this year, holding righties to a .586 OPS and lefties to a .665 OPS.

Chafin's expected numbers are equally as eye-popping, finishing the year in the 89th percentile in chase rate, 87th percentile in whiff rate, 86th percentile in xBA and xSLG, 84th percentile in xERA/xwOBA and 81st percentile in hard hit rate.

The Astros just won the World Series on the backs of a lights out bullpen that both missed bats at a high clip and limited hard contact when they were hit. Chafin would slide in perfectly. Houston proved this year no team can have too many arms. A late-inning bullpen stable of Chafin, Rafael Montero, Ryne Stanek, Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly would give opposing teams fits.

Signing Chafin would be a true "rich get richer" scenario. The Astros do have a couple of other areas of need they could stand to address first, but don't be surprised if the GM Committee upgrades Baker's token southpaw this offseason.

2) Andrew Benintendi

My emotional well-being has still never recovered from what Andrew Benintendi did to the Astros in Game 3 of the 2018 ALCS.

The left-handed Left Fielder would be a massive get for Houston. He would slot perfectly into both the Astros' lineup and their outfield.

Benintendi is a high-contact, quality at-bat machine, finishing the year in the 88th percentile in K rate, 86th in xBA, 84th in chase rate, 75th in whiff rate and 74th in walk rate.

If Michael Brantley is not back in an Astros' uniform, Benintendi slides in as a high-contact Left Fielder with occasional pop that brings balance to the lineup from the left side. He hit .304 with a .772 OPS in 2022, nearly identical to the .288/.785 line Uncle Mike registered before his shoulder injury.

Benintendi finished in the 65th percentile in outs above average and recorded two defensive runs saved in Left Field. He does have some versatility, having played Center Field on occasion while in Boston. Benintendi would give the Astros an outfield rotation of Alvarez, Benintendi, McCormick and Tucker. Three of the four are plus defenders and all are at least above-average hitters. That is a level of depth the Astros didn't have this year, as their outfield situation was dire anytime one of those three had not been in the lineup.

A grinder like Benintendi would fit perfectly in the Astros' us vs. everybody locker room mentality. He's gotten it done under the brightest of lights and would ensure the Astros are playing under those again in 2023. Only one potential offseason signing would bring more to Houston in their chase to repeat.

1) Willson Contreras

The Astros had a now-infamous deadline deal in place for Willson Contreras before Jim Crane and Dusty Baker shot down the trade. Baker didn't feel it was worth three years of team control of Jose Urquidy for a rental contract that wouldn't play daily.

The Astros won their ring anyways, and should now jump on Contreras with the opportunity to do so presenting itself again. The former Cub is one of, if not the best, hitting catchers in the MLB. He finished the 2022 season with a .243 batting average, an .815 OPS and a 128 OPS+. Contreras carries an .808 career OPS.

His expected numbers also jump off the page, finishing in the 94th percentile in xwOBA, 90th percentile in hard hit rate and 85th in xSLG. The 3x All-Star consistently squares the baseball up and would do a great deal of damage in a park like Minute Maid with the protection the rest of the Astros' lineup provides.

Contreras would likely be the primary DH in Houston. Martín Maldonado's impact on the pitching staff cannot be spoken of enough, so he would likely catch the majority of innings, with Contreras behind the plate every 3-4 days. Like Maldonado, Contreras has experience catching a World Series rotation, so the Astros could do far worse with a backup backstop.

Houston's reign of terror in the AL has mostly been on the backs of an overpowering offense and a dominant rotation. The 2022 team won the World Series with a good offense, excellent rotation and an indescribably dominant bullpen. With six starters still under contract and the bullpen coming back fully in tact, signing Contreras would merge the styles of play, giving the Astros a lineup that can mash and a stable of arms that are borderline untouchable.

Adding Contreras would give the Astros a possible Opening Day lineup resembling this:
2B Jose Altuve
SS Jeremy Peña
LF Yordan Alvarez
3B Alex Bregman
RF Kyle Tucker
DH Willson Contreras
1B Christian Walker/Yuli Gurriel
CF Chas McCormick
C Martín Maldonado

That's a team that will score runs in bunches backed with a pitching staff that will keep crooked numbers off the board. That's a recipe for success.

The Astros will celebrate Opening Day 2023 with the unveiling of their gold championship pennant and their World Series Rings. If they sign Willson Contreras this offseason, go ahead and book Opening Day 2024 for a repeat of the championship festivities.