Previewing the Best Candidates to Play 1B For the Houston Astros in 2023

4) Yuli Gurriel

I'll preface with this: I believe Yuli Gurriel both will and should re-sign with the Houston Astros next season. That said, if he is the everyday first baseman, something has gone wrong in free agency.

Gurriel, hot postseason or not, is coming off of his worst season at the plate in his career, in the MLB or internationally. He will turn 39 in June of next season. Yes he had a great postseason, but it is a safe bet to assume he will be a below average hitter again if tasked with manning 1B 140+ times again next year.

There aren't many 39-year-olds anywhere putting up big numbers at the plate. Gurriel's season was plagued with soft contact and one can imagine he won't start lacing the ball day-in and day-out as he approaches 40.

So why should be be brought back? I don't believe it a coincidence Gurriel was fantastic in the postseason, slashing .347/.360/.490 with two home runs and only one strikeout in 49 at-bats. The playoffs, by nature, have plenty of built-in off-days for travel. The load is much lighter than the grind of a 162-game regular season. The rest was massive for the aging veteran, as he found the fountain of youth and looked like the hitter 'Stros fans have become accustomed too.

As Jim Crane told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart, Gurriel can also play second and third-base. He's a phenomenal locker room asset and his Cuban connection is vital to a team that has dominated the international market.

If Gurriel is re-signed as an infield utility player, he can spell both Altuve and Bregman for days off, as well as some promising 1B candidates to be touched on later. We may see Gurriel again as a .280 hitter that brings good base-running and leadership in the club house if he plays every second or third day.

Gurriel needs to be an Astro as long as he plays. His international stature is too large to lose. But there are three other options better suited to play first for Houston next season.

3) Josh Bell

The Astros were heavily linked to Josh Bell at the trade deadline, but instead landed Trey Mancini. Bell went to San Diego in addition to Juan Soto in a massive deal.

The free agent first-baseman makes a lot of sense for Houston. He's a switch-hitter that would bring additional balance to a lineup featuring only two lefties. The Astros are famous for working pitch counts and rarely striking out, so slotting a quality at-bat machine like Bell into the heart of the order seems like a dream. Bell finished the year in the 93rd percentile in walk-rate and 83rd percentile in k-rate.

Add in his Texas roots, and what's not to love?

Two factors should steer the Astros away from Bell:
1) He's a very erratic performer year-in and year-out.
2) He's a sub-par defender at first base.

At times, Josh Bell looks like a top-hitter on the planet. In 2019, Bell slugged 37 bombs and posted a .936 OPS in a Pirates lineup that didn't afford him much protection. He did the same in the first half of 2022 for the Nationals, hitting .301 with an .877 OPS. In his 53 games in San Diego, he hit only .192 with 3 big flies and a .587 OPS. In the 2020 Covid-year, Bell struggled like many others, hitting only .226 with a .669 OPS.

Is Bell a performer that puts up big-numbers on bad teams? Just streaky? After navigating cold October showings from Altuve, Mancini, Diaz, and for a large chunk of the postseason, Yordan Alvarez, can they afford to add another boom-or-bust bat?

His defensive woes should steer Houston elsewhere. Bell finished in only the 17th percentile in outs above average. For Bell's career, he's -21 OAA and -28 Defensive runs saved.

The Astros' infielders are not known for their arm strength, and first baseman are often asked to dig the ball out of the dirt, a role in which Gurriel excelled.

In signing Bell, the Astros would likely get an above-average bat, albeit one with a propensity for prolonged hot and cold streaks, and a well below-average defender. Too much risk subsists to make him the primary option.

2) José Abreu

José Abreu makes a great deal of sense for the Astros at first base. He was good for 4.2 bWAR in 2022, he just hit .304 with an .824 OPS, his Baseball Savant page is filled with red at the plate meaning his expected stats project continued success rather than luck), the Crawford Boxes would parlay into 22 home runs rather than the 15 he hit, he'd play a solid first base (63rd percentile in outs above average and a great "scooper" of the baseball like Gurriel) and he keeps the Astros Cuban Connection alive.

Abreu's 15 home runs last season were a career low, but his 40 doubles were the second-highest total of his career. He's a walking .300 hitter that can be counted on for an .830 OPS.

Abreu on-paper checks every box the Astros need: a big bat in the heart of the order, only a slight defensive drop-off from Gurriel and a continuation of the international pipeline. How is he not their best option?

Father Time remains undefeated. Abreu turns 36 to start next season. Is the drop in power this season a sign of things to come? If Abreu's bat does go, the high AAV contract he will likely command (somewhere in the neighborhood of $18-23 million) quickly becomes an abyss for the organization.

Can the Astros manage to upgrade at 1B while simultaneously saving money that can go into an upgrade at DH (assuming Yordan plays more left) and extending key pieces? One option not being discussed enough would allow for just that.

1) Christian Walker

The Arizona Diamondbacks' Christian Walker is the upgrade the Astros need at first base next season. He may not carry the household name recognition of Abreu or Bell, but neither did trade acquisitions like Morton, Pressly and to some extent even Cole before becoming an Astro.

Walker is a match-made in heaven for Houston. They would have him under team control for two seasons (same length as Abreu is projected to receive), with his estimated salary amount coming out to $7.5 million in arbitration. Walker would save Houston 10-13 million a year to spend elsewhere on key pieces.

But we know the Astros aren't the Athletics and Jim Crane has shown a willingness to spend money, so what does bringing in Walker accomplish beyond balancing the budget?

Walker's Baseball Savant page is the stuff dreams are made of: he finished 2022 in the 92nd percentile in both xwOBA and xSLG, 82nd in barrel rate and chase rate, 76th in walk rate and 72nd in hard hit rate. He'd slot perfectly into the lineup as a consistent quality at-bat, but also one with a propensity for doing damage.

In his 160 games played this season, Walker slugged 37 home runs, which would project to 41 in Minute Maid Park.

Since coming to the big leagues, Walker has played two full seasons: 2019 & 2022 (battled injury in 2021 and 2020 was the shortened season). In both those seasons, Walker has recorded an .OPS over .800, 29+ home runs and 25+ doubles in a lineup affording him very little protection.

His chase-rate indicates a well above-average eye, so slotting him into Houston's lineup with the protection afforded by bats like Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker and Peña, it's a safe bet that his numbers would look even better.

Even more appealing than Walker's success and remaining untapped potential at the plate is his defense. No better defensive first baseman exists in the game. In both his full seasons, he has finished 98th and 99th percentile in outs above average. He finished this season with 17 defensive runs saved, tied for 10th best across all positions, and just won the Gold Glove at first base.

His combination of power and elite glove work amounted to a 5.1 bWAR for Walker this year, which would tie Altuve for fourth on the team.

The Astros do have a somewhat shallow farm system, but if Walker can be had for the right price (the Diamondbacks were open to moving him at the deadline) he is the Astros best option to play first base next year.

Walker would bring a fearsome bat in the heart of the order and is the only candidate that is a clear-cut defensive upgrade over Yuli Gurriel.

The GM Committee needs to get on the line with Arizona for the first time since the Greinke deal in 2019. If the Astros can land Walker, well, start mapping off a parade route downtown again. 2023 will be a monster year in the H.