Projecting Astros' playoff rotation after Spencer Arrighetti flop vs. Reds

For the Houston Astros, Spencer Arrighetti's ascent to being a quality MLB starter had been a godsend after he impressed everyone with a strong spring training. Before his start against the Reds on Wednesday, he had posted a 2.77 ERA in his previous nine starts, including being almost untouchable in the month of August. With all of the injuries in the Astros' rotation, Arrighetti's performance lately had been more than welcome.

Unfortunately, Arrighetti stumbled badly against Cincinnati to start September, as he failed to get out of the first inning. When the dust settled, he was charged with nine earned runs after giving up six hits and three walks and only managing to record two outs.

With the Astros needing to make some tough decisions regarding their playoff rotation soon, Arrighetti's blunder could end up costing him a spot in the playoff rotation.

Astros 2024 Playoff Rotation Projection (as of Sept. 6)

There are a few things we know for sure here. Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi are near certainties to be included in Houston's playoff plans, assuming they stay healthy. They are making real money and, more importantly, are pitching well. Hunter Brown has likely earned his spot as well, with a strong 2024 follow-up to his promising rookie season last year. We also know that the Astros appear to be strongly considering moving Ronel Blanco to the bullpen to manage his workload.

With that in mind, here is a quick glance at what the Astros are likely to do when they set their playoff rotation.

• Framber Valdez
• Yusei Kikuchi
• Hunter Brown
• Justin Verlander

Arrighetti's poor start reinforces the concerns that have been raised with hypothetically not including Verlander. On the whole, Arrighetti has looked better lately than Verlander, and certainly has better present-day stuff at this point of their careers. If we are looking at pure upside based on known information, picking Arrighetti over Verlander is still the play.

However, the one thing that Arrighetti doesn't have is experience in the playoffs, whereas Verlander has that in spades. In a world where the Astros carry four starters (which isn't a sure thing in the first round), having a guy like Verlander, who isn't going to fold any more than he normally would when the pressure is on, has a lot of value. Houston is probably thinking exactly that.

It is unfortunate that this feels like the most likely outcome. Verlander looks like a guy at the end of his career whose body is failing him. There is a real chance that he will get beat up once he is up against the best of the best in the playoffs. However, Arrighetti kinda blew his chance to make his case, and now has very limited opportunities left in the regular season to change Houston's mind.

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