Astros Postseason Rotation Projection 2.0: Does Justin Verlander make the cut?

With the MLB postseason around the corner, the Houston Astros are once again ready to make a deep run in October. The Astros just won their fourth straight AL West division title and their seventh in the last eight years, secured with a 4-3 win over the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday. After a slow start to the season, opening 7-19, this team once again showed their championship DNA and found a way to win. The Astros regained the division lead over the Seattle Mariners in late July after trailing by 10 games the month prior. While the offense was able to perform down the stretch, it was the pitching staff full of new arms that created the chance for another division crown. 

With season-ending injuries to starters Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr., Houston has had to rely on a different group of pitchers in 2024 that have delivered for the team. While Framber Valdez was the ace of this rotation (as usual), the team also saw Ronel Blanco hold the fort down early. After the halfway point, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti were able to figure it out and pitch at an elite level. Yusei Kikuchi has turned out to be excellent. Given the number of arms involved, there has been a lot of discussion about the potential starting pitching rotation that the Astros will use -- specifically about whether it will include three-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. 

Most years in Houston, fans would consider JV to be an integral part of their pitching staff, as that has been the case the past seven seasons. However, it’s been a different story in 2024. After recovering from an early right shoulder injury that caused him to miss the first few weeks of the season, Verlander looked quite solid. Unfortunately, JV suffered a neck injury in June that caused him to miss two months. He returned to the rotation and had a decent first outing with five innings of two-run baseball vs the Red Sox, but struggled in his next two starts vs the Phillies and Reds before having his worst performance of the year, where he gave up eight earned runs in three innings vs the Diamondbacks. 

His next performance at the Angels represented a good five innings pitched with only two earned runs, and got him the win. That opened the door for the nine-time All Star, if he finished the season with some great performances, to nab a potential playoff start. However, his next start vs the Angels was once again a struggle, as he gave up six earned runs in 4.2 innings. JV has an 8.63 ERA in the last seven starts, with 31 runs given up in 32.1 innings total. 

Astros' Playoff Rotation: Is Justin Verlander the weak link?

Many fans have considered JV to be the rotation's weakest at age 41, and would not put him in among the starters for the postseason, as there is a clear top four in this rotation. The Astros may want him to be a mentor to the young pitchers and help guide them, especially in the Wild Card round and ALDS. If the Astros reach their eighth straight ALCS, Houston might consider adding him to the roster for a seven-game series. Ace Framber Valdez is having another excellent campaign with a 2.91 ERA in 28 starts. Ronel Blanco, a key member of Houston's starting pitching early on who had one of the earliest no-hitters ever to start the year, has been incredibly consistent for this team. Blanco is currently one of the top starters for the Astros, and might even get Cy Young votes. The 6 '3" righty has a 2.80 ERA in over 167 innings with 166 strikeouts. 

Hunter Brown has stepped up to be one of the best pitchers in the game the last few months, with a 2.71 ERA in his previous 15 starts, adding high strikeout numbers throughout the season. Yusei Kikuchi was considered to be the result of a bad trade with the Toronto Blue Jays from general manager Dana Brown at the deadline for promising rookie outfielder Joey Loperfido, infielder Will Wagner, and pitcher Jake Bloss. Brown was heavily criticized as giving up too much for an average starter. However, the Astros pitching staff has elevated Kikuchi to another level of high strikeouts and velocity; he's provided much-needed innings for the team, and nearly never loses. Houston had won the first nine Kikuchi starts in their uniform, as the righty posted a 5-0 record before recording a loss in a meaningless game vs the Mariners. The southpaw currently has a 2.70 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 60 innings pitched for the 'Stros.

It looks as if rookie Spencer Arrighetti might go to the bullpen as a result, as he pitched a shutout in the final 2.1 innings in the first game of the season finale series vs the Guardians. Arrighetti has been very impressive, with one of the highest strikeout numbers for a rookie in Astros history, including a 2.36 ERA in his last seven starts. 

Verlander’s last start of the season vs the Guardians likely will not play any factor in a potential selection into the rotation. It does not look like the former MVP will be a playoff starter. However, it could end up being his last start in his Astros career. After signing a two year, $86.6 million deal with the Mets in 2023, he was traded back to the Astros, and his contract will end this season.

Regardless of whether this is the end, it has been a storied Astros career for the future Hall of Famer.