Astros Playoff Clinching Scenarios: Houston on the verge of locking up AL West

With the inept Angels in town, the Houston Astros have a real chance in the coming days to secure their spot in the postseason. Their magic number is in the low single digits, and the team that could most easily deny them a spot, the Mariners, has not shown the ability to put together the run necessary to deny the Astros another division title.

With three-ish series left in the 2024 season, Houston has a five game lead in the AL West, and we could see them clinch a spot in the MLB playoffs as soon as this weekend if everything breaks their way.

Astros AL West clinch: Key dates, possible matchups

This is something that could change relatively quickly if games break a certain way over the next week, but the most likely path for the Astros to the postseason is by winning the AL West, which they currently have a 98.4% chance of doing according to FanGraphs. With a magic number of 5, that means that the Astros could clinch the division on Sunday, September 22, although that would require a bit of good fortune.

For that to happen, the Astros would need to win at least two of their next three games against the Angels. While that seems pretty likely, they would also then need the Mariners to get swept by the Rangers on the road. A clean sweep by Houston, concurrent with Seattle losing two of three to Texas, would also allow the champagne to start flowing.

That is a lot of moving parts, and the more likely scenario is the Astros clinching the division at home against the Mariners early next week. Every win in that series would reduce Houston's magic number by two over Seattle, which makes that road significantly easier. If the Astros falter against the Mariners, however, things get far too interesting. Anything less than a Houston sweep over Seattle means that the Mariners would own the tiebreaker between the two, and losing that series would instantly revive Seattle's playoff aspirations and make the last week of the season a nail-biter.

2024 MLB Playoff Bracket assuming Astros win the division

Ignoring the potential doomsday scenario for a moment, let's assume the Astros do win the AL West and cement their spot as the No. 3 seed in the American League, which is statistically the most probable outcome here (Houston could move or down in seed, but that would require a lot of weird stuff to happen).

As of today, the 2024 MLB playoff bracket would have the Astros taking on the Twins or Tigers (with the Twins holding the tiebreaker) in the first round of the playoffs, and Houston would not receive a bye. That potential Twins matchup does not seem particularly scary, given how poorly Minnesota has been playing. However, the Tigers are playing their brains out right now, and having to deal with Tarik Skubal in a short series is legitimately spooky (even with all three potential games in Houston).

The next few days are likely to provide a lot of clarity to the AL playoff race. If the Astros continue to take care of business against the Angels like they did in the first game of the series, they will be in great shape. However, if the Astros' flaws continue to get exposed and this thing lingers into the final week of the season, blood pressure medication prescriptions are going to go through the roof in Houston.

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