Astros Playoff Odds: Hot streak and Mariners’ struggles have Houston on the verge

The Houston Astros are doing their absolute best to put the finishing touches on what has been a dramatic turnaround in 2024. After looking like hot garbage for the first couple of months of the season, the Astros have looked like one of the best teams in baseball since then and keep finding ways to get even better. This week could be a prime example of their betterment, as it feels very likely that they could get Kyle Tucker back from his lengthy IL stint very, very soon.

Now that there is less than a month left in the 2024 season and the Astros have played well while the Mariners have fallen six games back in the division, the odds are looking very, very good that Houston will finish in their rightful place atop the AL West by season's end.

Astros Playoff Odds: Houston near locks to win fourth straight division title

Look, we don't want to jinx anything here. There is still a lot of baseball left to be played and that means plenty of opportunities for things to go wrong. The Astros still have tough series against the Diamondbacks, Padres, Guardians, and those pesky Mariners left on their schedule. This thing isn't over until it is a mathematical lock.

However, Houston fans should feel really good at the moment. As of Sept. 3, the Astros have a 98.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 97.2% shot at winning the AL West, according to FanGraphs. FanGraphs is not alone in being very bullish on Houston's chances, as Baseball-Reference has their own playoff odds, and they like Houston even more, giving the 'Stros a 98.6% chance of winning the division and 98.8% chance of getting to the postseason, with their odds going up by 8.7% just over the last week.

If the season ended today, the Astros would be matched up with the Royals in the playoffs as the third seed in the AL. Considering how grim things were looking back in May, Houston fans will happily take that outcome, especially since there is an outside chance they could end up with a bye in the first round of the playoffs if some more luck breaks their way.

More Astros News from Climbing Tal's Hill