Astros' series loss to Padres revealed how ill-equipped they are for postseason play

All things considered, the Houston Astros are still overwhelmingly likely to make the playoffs this year. While Houston hasn't been able to put the division away just yet, they still have a 98,9% chance of getting to the postseason according to FanGraphs, and a five-game lead in the AL West. With just 10 games left on the schedule -- including what should be a pretty cozy four-game series against the truly terrible Angels -- the division is theirs to lose.

However, that doesn't mean that the Astros are without any concerns. The rotation has two studs in Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, as well as the surprisingly productive Yusei Kikuchi, but there are real questions beyond that at starting pitcher. The offense seems to be feast or famine much of the time, and the Astros' bullpen depth (beyond their three primary high-leverage guys) leaves something to be desired.

After losing two out of three to the surging Padres this week, those flaws were laid bare.

Astros' series loss to Padres highlights that playoff wins will not come easily for them in 2024

To be clear, Houston wasn't completely overmatched in this series. All three games were reasonably close, with Wednesday's 4-0 shutout loss being the most lopsided, and it isn't like the Astros got swept. However, what the series did highlight is that the Astros are vulnerable on both sides of the ball, and that is going to be an issue against good teams like San Diego.

In Games 1 and 3, the Astros' offense could do nothing against starters Yu Darvish and Dylan Cease, and the Padres' bullpen was very tough. On the other side, Houston's bullpen was very uneven, including an awful outing from relatively new bullpen depth piece Kaleb Ort on Wednesday, even after getting pretty strong starts from the rotation. If this is what happens in a regular season series with marginal stakes, do we actually think things will improve when the season is on the line?

The short answer is...actually maybe! One thing that the Astros do have going for them is that most of their roster has extensive playoff experience. Even in a world where they are matched up with a hotter and/or more talented team, Houston isn't likely to be nervous under the playoff spotlight, while less seasoned clubs absolutely could be. The Astros are well-known to be able to take things up a notch in the postseason, even if some "experts" still believe that Houston could disappoint this season.

What is likely to matter more is whether or not the Astros hit the right buttons ahead of the playoffs. If Houston focuses on fielding the best roster instead of giving veterans like Justin Verlander key spots on their playoff roster, they will be in good shape. If they ignore what is right in front of their eyes and put their trust in the wrong players, a rare early playoff exit could be coming.

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