Astros' Dana Brown agreeing to talk Alex Bregman contract in offseason promises nothing

For most outside observers, the idea that the Houston Astros would bring back Alex Bregman after the 2024 season has been a long shot idea at best. Between the Astros' payroll already being pretty tight prior to extensions for Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker, along with what is likely to be hefty contract demands from Bregman's side, a healthy amount of skepticism towards a reunion is very warranted.

However, neither side has been willing to shut the door on the possibility. Bregman does seem to have enjoyed his time in Houston, and publicly removing a potential bidder for his services prematurely doesn't make sense. The Astros have to think about the optics with their fans if they don't at least attempt to bring him back. Plus, Bregman has been an important part of their offense who would be nontrivial to replace.

All of that said, Dana Brown's recent comments during a Q&A with Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart were certainly interesting regarding Bregman's future. While some are heralding his willingness to discuss re-signing Bregman after the season as a glimmer of hope, these statements need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

Talks between the Astros and Alex Bregman give the impression of both sides trying to manage optics

It is certainly true that Brown indicating that the two sides would talk after the season is the first concrete indication we have seen in a long time that a reunion is possible. It is also true that as long as Bregman isn't under contract somewhere else, a return to Houston will be on the table. At the end of the day, both Bregman and the Astros have mutually benefitted from the relationship, and that shouldn't be discounted.

However, Brown's phrasing here is interesting. While he did say that the two sides would talk after the season, he also characterized his initial chat as, "We had a small conversation about it" while insisting that they were not currently in discussions about a contract offer.

This feels like a general manager doing a bit of fan service. Bregman has rebounded nicely this season, but there are real questions about how his offensive production is trending, as well as that pesky arm injury of Bregman's that has made playing third base problematic. For a team that can't afford to give out a mega-deal and not have it pan out, the Astros pushing their chips in on Bregman (especially with Brice Matthews waiting in the wings) is pretty dubious.

Perhaps owner Jim Crane is feeling the pressure of what appears to be a closing window of contention and is now willing to push the Astros' payroll consistently into the luxury tax. If that happens, a Bregman return is much more likely. Unfortunately, we have no indication he is willing to do that, and based on the team's needs and future potential payroll obligations, investing what it would take to keep Bregman remains a tough sell once you take emotions out of it.

More from Climbing Tal's Hill