Surprise 3B extension all but kills any chance of Alex Bregman staying with Astros

For all the discussion of Alex Bregman's impending free agency and what that means for the Houston Astros going forward, there hasn't been enough talk about what the third base market as a whole could look like. For a while, it appeared as though his chief competition this offseason was going to be Matt Chapman.

Like many Boras clients last offseason, Chapman didn't find the big free agent deal he was looking for, and ultimately decided to sign a three-year deal with the Giants that included multiple opt-outs. The theory was that if he played well in 2024, he could opt out and test the market again. If not, he would still have some financial security.

The first part of the plan has gone quite well. Chapman's line at the plate of .247/.333/.446 with 22 homers isn't overwhelming, but is more than good enough, considering how much value he provides defensively, an area where he is world class. However, instead of trying to cash in on free agency again, Chapman chose to ink a six-year extension with San Francisco this week, which raises some interesting questions about an impact on Bregman's future.

Matt Chapman extension likely means Alex Bregman will leave Astros for massive payday

Both the Astros and Bregman have been open to talking with one another about keeping him beyond 2024, but it has become abundantly clear that those talks haven't gotten anywhere this season. The Astros are hamstrung by some crummy contracts, and Bregman is looking for one last big payday. Sometimes, the stars don't align for a deal to work out.

Chapman's extension only drives that point home even more. Not only is Bregman a better hitter than Chapman, which is likely going to be what he argues when he tries to beat the existing deal, but it also takes the only other marquee third baseman off the market. Eugenio Suarez is a decent player, but he isn't anywhere near the level of Bregman anymore, and the rest of the third base free agent class is pretty grim.

With the Astros probably remaining unwilling to pay Bregman what he can likely attain, where will he end up? Well, right now, the doomsday scenario where Bregman ends up with the Yankees is certainly still on the table, with the Diamondbacks and Mariners being among the possibilities as well. Houston will need someone to play third in 2025 and beyond, so never say never on a reunion, but the odds of that happening are looking pretty long at the moment.

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