Padres-Jackson Merrill deal offers appealing framework for Astros-Cam Smith extension

The San Diego Padres have added another massive contract extension to their payroll. Already on the hook for 10-plus seasons of Manny Machado, Xander Boagerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr., the Friars just inked Jackson Merrill to a nine-year, $135 million contract extension that can ultimately reach $204 million if he triggers all the escalators and the $30 million player-option.

The Padres are no stranger to dishing out these types of contracts. San Diego has the aforementioned trio of Machado, Boagerts, and Tatis under contract throughout at least 2033, and some of those annual paychecks are upwards of $30 million.

The Houston Astros have taken a different approach. The Astros rarely go past five year contract extensions, but they may have to make an exception if they want to keep Cam Smith in Houston over the long haul.

Padres-Jackson Merrill deal offers appealing framework for Astros-Cam Smith extension

Smith and Merrill have a lot in common. Both players were highly-rated prior to being drafted, and each has since moved from the infield dirt to the outfield grass. Merrill is arguably the more athletic of the two players, but Smith has a bit more raw power in his bat. If the Astros are looking to lock up Smith for the future, Merrill's new deal is a tremendous comp.

However, Houston should be wary of pulling the trigger on such a gargantuan contract until the rookie actually proves himself. These pre-arbitration type of deals that Merrill just signed are fine once a player has proven his worth. But many a team has been made to look foolish by signing unproven prospects before seeing them go up against major league competition.

Luis Robert Jr. signed a six-year, $50 million deal with the Chicago White Sox prior to his MLB debut. That deal would look like a bargain if Robert was able to stay healthy. The White Sox also signed Eloy Jiminez to a six-year deal before he made it to The Show. That's one they'd assuredly love to have back. Scott Kingery and the Philadelphia Phillies is another example.

There are others, however, that allowed these young players to at least show flashes of talent before signing them long-term. Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll and Boston Red Sox speedster Ceddanne Rafaela come to mind.

If Smith is able to replicate somewhat of the rookie numbers that Merrill put up 2024, then perhaps the Astros should approach the former first-rounder with a similar offer in hand. But until Smith begins to turn a corner, it's probably best to just stand pat and allow him to develop at his own pace.

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