Jake Meyers’ return to Astros’ lineup has been a reminder of their grave miscalculation

Jake Meyers is back with the Houston Astros and doing the things that keep him in a big league lineup. These things include running down balls in the gap, taking pretty professional at bats, and generally looking the part. The problem, though, is that “looking the part” is carrying way too much weight as he’s not really acting the part. 

Meyers returned from a Grade 2 oblique strain in mid-May after missing more than a month, and the few weeks since he’s been back have served as reminder that his offensive gains from last season that made him an interesting trade piece likely weren’t going to last. Every time he rolls over a pitch, it’s worth remembering that the Astros had a chance to turn him into something different this past offseason, and didn’t make the move. 

The Astros whiffed on Jake Meyers' "sell-high" window

You don’t have to go far to remember that he was coming off the best full season of his career. He hit .292/.354/.373 for a 107 wRC+. He stole 16 bases. He cut his strikeout rate. The power that he’d displayed in the previous couple of seasons had largely disappeared in favor of more contact. He also ranked in the 96th percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA). With a drop in strikeouts and a bump in walks, he turned himself into the kind of player contenders love to overpay to acquire. And they had chances. There were reports that there was real interest over the winter, with the Royals as one of the teams asking.

It wasn’t outlandish to make the argument that Meyers should be moved. A player entering his age-29 season whose value is built on contact, speed, and defense, with very little power to fall back on, is a sell-high candidate as soon as the batting average spikes. It’s one of the least sticky things in baseball, and even though he ranked in the 80th percentile for xBA last year, it wasn’t likely to continue. The smart play was to cash in on the breakout while a buyer believed it was the new baseline, and then use that return to help a farm system that needed lots of love.

To be fair, it also wasn’t crazy to think it was the right move to keep him. The Astros didn’t have anyone else to play center. Their ideal reinforcements weren’t really available at the time. Meyers was cheap and controllable for two more years. All the reasons teams would want him are reasons the Astros would want to keep him. That’s an honest counterargument, though hindsight is proving it to be a poor one.

The reality of holding onto a player like Meyers is that you’re not protecting an asset, but rather absorbing risk. He does have a high floor due to his defense, but his bat was always likely to give some of it back. And while he’s not expensive at just $3.55 million in his second year of arbitration, he does turn 30 this week, and is hitting .215/.274/.336 through the weekend. In total, he has a wRC+ of 70. Since his return on May 19, it’s 54. 

Yes, it’s a small sample, and yes, he’s coming off an injury notorious for being tough to come back from. But it’s not totally just noise. He’s the same player who posted a wRC+ of 87 in 2023 and 85 in 2024. He had three home runs last season. The spike last year is looking more and more like the outlier rather than a new normal. Anyone who wanted him in November was betting on the spike. Or maybe the Astros were marketing him as if that is who he is now, and teams weren’t believing it.

Now they’re in a spot where timing is no longer their friend. Even if they misvalued him on the market this winter, whatever his value was then is certainly less now. The Astros are still just four out of a mediocre American League West, which means they get to continue to tell themselves a story that they can contend, while Dana Brown completely dodges the question. And if they do end up selling at the deadline, Meyers won’t return anything near what he likely would have this winter, even if that was less than they were hoping at the time. The leverage is gone, and it’s hard to see it coming back in time for the deadline. 

There was a market for Meyers, and every time he steps to the plate, the Astros get a reminder that it didn’t have to be like this. Now, they just have to hope he can regain some of his 2025 magic at the plate, and they can try again this winter, or else trade him for pennies on the dollar at this deadline to a team looking for a fourth outfielder.

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