Floated Isaac Paredes trade packages are a lesson to stop trusting trade generators

The current hot topic when it comes to the Houston Astros this offseason is regarding what is turning out to be quite the crowded infield. Given the Astros' own words as to their 2026 plans and the defensive limitations of their roster, it is clear that they will have to get rid of at least one player via trade, and most of the scuttlebutt has been around an Isaac Paredes trade.

Trading Paredes is likely not Houston's preferred option (that honor goes to Christian Walker) to trade, but he is very much the option that is likely to bring back a decent return. Not only would Paredes be under team control through 2027, but he was playing pretty well until a hamstring injury derailed his 2025 season. If Houston wants to clear some space (and money), moving Paredes is probably the easiest solution.

However, what they shouldn't do is use Baseball Trade Values to come up with trade packages, apparently. Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller put together some new MLB trade packages to think about before the start of spring training using that site and, uh, the Paredes trade it spat out between the Astros and Red Sox (among others) leaves something to be desired.

People need to stop using online trade evaluators and Isaac Paredes is a great example of why

Now, this isn't an attempt to drag Miller. This was clearly a thought exercise meant to inspire discussion, not an end-all, be-all prediction like some trade proposals come across. However, this one is particularly rough even by online trade evaluators' admittedly low standards.

In the deal, the Astros would give up Paredes, Bryan Abreu (their second-best reliever), and top prospect Brice Matthews for.....outfielder Wilyer Abreu. That's it. How any online, supposedly data-driven trade evaluator would come up with this as a fair trade is absolutely wild. That isn't a knock on Abreu, who is a fine player and excellent defender. Even if this wasn't lopsided in favor of Boston (and it absolutely is), Houston might as well keep Jake Meyers and not have to give up so much for a very similar player.

One of the many issues with these sorts of models is that there is no room for nuance when it comes to how much money gets sent or not in a deal (or they do so badly). There is no world where Dana Brown would look at that deal and do it unless Boston was willing to take on Walker's money, too. A deal between Houston and Boston makes sense, but it isn't this one, and it may involve the Astros sending a bit of cash over as well.

Again, a framework exists for a Paredes trade with the Red Sox (and others) that would address the issues that the Astros are trying to solve and give a fair return for both sides. Just don't use any of these online trade engines because they absolutely stink.