Corbin Burnes contract with Diamondbacks might seal Framber Valdez's fate with Astros

Few teams (if any) in all of baseball have had as impactful of an offseason thus far as the Houston Astros. Not only did they trade away Kyle Tucker for an impressive haul and let Alex Bregman walk, but they signed one of the top first basemen on the free agent market in Christian Walker. In terms of high-level roster turnover, the Astros are up there with anyone.

One area of the Astros' roster that hasn't gotten nearly enough attention in this regard is their rotation. Justin Verlander doesn't seem likely to return at this point and Houston already lost prized trade deadline acquisition Yusei Kikuchi to the Angels in free agency. The position player changes have gotten all the headlines thus far, but Houston's starting staff is going to look very different heading into 2025, one way or another.

For the moment, one constant in the rotation that should remain is Framber Valdez. Despite making Valdez somewhat available for a trade this offseason, it does appear as though Houston will keep him for the start of the 2025 season, at the very least, after successfully moving Tucker.

However, their plans for Valdez during the 2025 season may have just changed after the recent blockbuster deal that saw Corbin Burnes sign with the Diamondbacks.

It sure seems like the Astros could trade Framber Valdez at the deadline given the state of the starting pitching market

Given that both Burnes, as well as Max Fried, just signed contracts in excess of $200 million, the already slim likelihood that Houston would extend Valdez just got slimmer. There is no doubt that Valdez has been one of best left-handed starters in baseball since 2020 while posting a 3.12 ERA and 3.36 FIP across 123 appearances, and Astros fans would love to keep him for the long haul.

The problem is that the open market is likely to value Valdez beyond the Astros' comfort zone, and Valdez almost certainly knows that. Houston would probably love to keep Valdez beyond next season, but it is pretty telling that we not heard any updates on a potential extension, but have heard that the Astros were willing to trade Valdez earlier this offseason. Would they be willing to top Fried's record-setting eight-year deal for a left-hander? No way. What about Burnes' $35 million AAV, which might pacify Valdez if he can't have length? They'll never exceed it.

As to how Houston will balance the knowledge that Valdez is likely to leave while also intending to compete next season, the path is clear. The Astros can keep Valdez through the deadline to keep fielding the most competitive roster possible. Then, they can move Valdez for a return that will likely outpace the draft pick compensation they would get by keeping him and extending him a qualifying offer. Depending on where Houston stands in the playoff race, they could pivot to a cheaper starting pitcher at the deadline to fill the void.

This plan does get a bit tricky if the Astros are in a tight race for a playoff spot in 2025 at the deadline, or are hurtling towards World Series contention, as it is unlikely that anyone they are able to bring in would be as good as Valdez. However, if Houston watches depth options emerge or is out of it altogether, moving Valdez at the trade deadline before he leaves for his own mega deal in free agency makes a ton of sense now.

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