Astros' decision on Framber Valdez places ton of pressure on Houston’s front office

While the Houston Astros' decision to be open for business when it comes to trading from their roster was a polarizing one, there was merit to it. Kyle Tucker was/is a great player, but the reality is that the chances of extending him were diminishing by the day, and trading him now when he could command a premium that could help Houston in 2025 and beyond isn't an objectively terrible idea. Houston faces a similar situation with Framber Valdez.

Objectively, moving Valdez makes the Astros worse in 2025 unless he is replaced by a guy like Corbin Burnes, which isn't going to happen. Over the last several years, Valdez has established himself as one of the best left-handed starters in baseball, including three straight top-10 finishes in the AL Cy Young chase. However, he going to end up making around $19 million in 2025 (at minimum), is in his last year of team control, and there has been no word whatsoever that the Astros are close to getting an extension done with him.

So the Astros have a choice: they can either keep Valdez and go for it with him at the front of the rotation one more time, hoping desperately for a long-term pact, OR they could trade him for what would be a handsome return. This would also require a lingering hope that the moves they have already made are enough to keep them competitive.

It appears as though Houston has gone with the first option, as recent reporting this offseason claims the Astros are signaling that they will not trade Valdez this offseason.

Astros choosing not to trade Framber Valdez places a ton of pressure on Houston performing in 2025

Again, there are no strictly right or wrong answers here, and it was clear from Dana Brown's comments at the Winter Meetings that Valdez was at least somewhat available until recently. If the Astros had found a taker that would have given them a package comparable to what they got for Tucker first, it is fair to assume that Valdez would have been moved.

However, it feels like the Astros know that they could afford to lose one of those guys and still be good enough to compete, but not both. With Tucker officially gone, moving Valdez as well would effectively be punting on the 2025 season.

Completely resetting and building for the future not only would probably bring the ire of Astros owner Jim Crane, who seems to take pride in fielding a contender every year, but also doesn't track with Houston's follow-up move to sign Christian Walker, along with their previous attempts to lock up Bregman. The Astros are making their bet with the roster they are assembling, while acknowledging that something needed to happen to create a more sustainable model for the future.

Making Valdez unavailable in trade now doesn't completely shut the door, either. If a team comes along with a "blow you away" package, Houston could alter course. If the Astros somehow falter in 2025 and are out of contention realistically by the trade deadline, there would be no shortage of teams willing to trade for him then as well.

That doesn't mean that there aren't risks with this strategy. If the Astros pick the wrong guy to keep in Valdez, and he gets hurt or has a down year and Tucker goes off, the front office is understandably going to get some heat. If the Astros went through all of these roster changes and end up faltering early in the playoffs or missing the postseason altogether after letting Tucker and Bregman go, heads may roll. But, for now, Houston seems to be prepared to stick to their guns -- until the trade deadline, at least.

More Astros News from Climbing Tal's Hill