The Houston Astros created quite the frenzy down at the Winter Meetings when Dana Brown revealed that the club is open to trading Framber Valdez or Kyle Tucker this offseason. It is safe to say that Brown's phone received no shortage of texts inquiring about the asking price for both players from executives across the league in the immediate aftermath.
Ignoring Tucker for a moment (but just a moment!), cashing in on Valdez's final year of team control makes some sense. While it would make Houston's rotation strictly worse, there is no guarantee whatsoever that the Astros will be able to keep him beyond the 2025 season, and at an estimated salary of nearly $19 million next season, trading Valdez would free up a lot of funds for the Astros to increase their offer to Alex Bregman and/or make upgrades to other spots on the roster.
Fortunately for Houston, the market for starters is objectively insane right now. One of the most needy teams in the arms race is the Red Sox, a squad with a very deep farm system and a previous connection to a Valdez trade in the past.
This trade package could be enough for Astros to send Framber Valdez to the Red Sox
There are a couple things to keep in mind here. Yes, Valdez is one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball and has real value that needs to be accounted for. However, he's only under control for the 2025 season. Given that he is going to get around $19 million in his last year of arbitration, Astros fans may want to temper their expectations with regards to the prospect return. If acquired, the Red Sox would immediately hope to extend Valdez; their window does not begin and end in 2025, after all.
Here is one potential trade package that could work for both the Red Sox and Houston, assuming it would mean that the Astros were also free and clear of Valdez's salary.
With the Red Sox potentially in the market for Garrett Crochet as well, targeting the top of their farm system feels like a stretch for one year of Valdez. Houston also needs real depth in the minor leagues, so a volume over quality approach when approaching Boston has a lot of merit.
That said, the Astros would still end up with a really nice prospect in Jhostnyxon Garcia, along with a pair of youngsters with upside in Dobbins and Hamilton. Garcia just mashed his way to Double-A last season with an .892 OPS, and possesses real raw power and speed as a potential outfield option down the road. He is the headliner here for sure, and is much better than his prospect ranking in Boston's system suggests.
Dobbins impressed enough in 2024 to get added to the 40-man roster last month and possesses a quality four-pitch mix, including a good slider and mid-90s fastball. Hamilton has struggled to latch on defensively in the big leagues so far, but he can absolutely fly and has shown some pop in the minors as an up-the-middle utility option.
Given all the noise around a Valdez trade, it feels like we will get some news as to how motivated the Astros are to move him (or Tucker) this week. It could be a painful move to make, but one that could pay big dividends down the road for Houston.