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The Houston Astros have lost their grip on the AL West. A 6-4 loss to the Seattle Mariners on Saturday night at Daikin Park not only puts them two games back of their division rival, but the Astros playoff odds have taken a major hit as they're now on the outside looking in. If the MLB Postseason began today, the Astros would be watching from the comfort of their living room.
The week opened with a season-defining series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros swept the Rangers right out of Houston, earned the Silver Boot, and looked as if they were primed to show the Mariners that the division goes through H-Town. After winning three straight against the Rangers, the Astros playoffs were sitting at 93.7% according to FanGraphs.
Fast-forward to Sunday, and Houston's odds of making back to the postseason for a ninth straight season have plummeted to just 64.5%. Worse yet, their chances to win the AL West are sitting at just 9.1%. The Mariners now own the season series over the Astros and hold a two game lead in the division.
Astros playoff odds are plummeting and the tiebreaker scenarios don't offer much hope
To make matters worse, the Cleveland Guardians are playing their best baseball of the season and are — for the moment — sitting above the Astros in the hunt for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Guardians won 4-of-6 against the Astros this season, and own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Boston Red Sox currently hold the No. 5 seed (second AL Wild Card spot) and lead Cleveland by one game in the standings. Boston has been shaky over the last few weeks, but the Red Sox — like the Guardians — hold the tiebreaker over the Astros thanks to their 4-2 record against Houston this season.
The Detroit Tigers, who've long been considered the best team in the American League this season, have suddenly hit a wall. AJ Hinch's club had a stranglehold on the AL Central throughout the entire second half of the season, but thanks to the Guardians' surge and the Tigers' collapse, Cleveland is just one game back of Detroit in the division.
But here's the bad news; even if the Guardians surpass the Tigers and take control of the AL Central, the Astros are still end up on the short-end of the stick if they finish the season with the same record as Detroit. Much like the Guardians, Mariners, and Red Sox, the Tigers won the head-to-head battle against the Astros this season and hold the tiebreaker.
No matter which way you slice it, Astros fans, if Houston doesn't finish the regular season with better record than all four of their closest competitors (Detroit, Seattle, Boston, and Cleveland) they will miss the playoffs. That's a brutal scenario, and one that could very well decide the Astros postseason fate.