Astros have ace-in-the-hole in AL West race regardless of how Mariners series goes

The Houston Astros-Seattle Mariners series that began on Friday has all the makings of a cinematic event. Two divisional rivals with identical records, tied atop the American League West, battling it out over three games for the pennant. 'This is what it all comes down to!' Surely, media outlets covering the series will lean into this sort of narrative: a high-stakes, desperate affair. But is that the ultimate reality?

Ideally, the Astros will be able to rally after losing the series opener on Friday. However, there’s a comforting sub-plot happening for the Astros, and it makes the present series with Seattle far less of a do-or-die moment than some may realize.

Astros can have a bad series against the Mariners and still win the division

With nine games remaining on the schedule for both Houston and Seattle, every game will be meaningful when it comes to determining the AL West crown, but the Astros hold a key scheduling advantage in that regard.

Following the present series, the Astros and Mariners will be finishing out their respective seasons against wildly different levels of competition. Advantage Astros, in this case. Houston will be playing against two bad teams who are completely out of the playoff picture: the Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels. Meanwhile, Seattle is staring at a three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers to finish their schedule.

Yes, the Mariners should have an easy time against the Colorado Rockies in the series prior, but the Dodgers series promises to be extremely difficult, especially given the fact that Los Angeles will likely still be stuck in a brutal pennant battle of its own against the San Diego Padres.

Entering Friday, the Dodgers held a decent three-game lead over San Diego. The Mariners are really hoping that this lead grows by the time they have to face Los Angeles, making the final series of the season far less meaningful for Dave Roberts’ ball club. But given the way that the Padres and Dodgers have been neck-and-neck in the standings for large portions of 2025, it just feels like things will come down to the wire.

Thus, while the Astros are flexing their muscle against the Athletics and Angels over the season’s final days, the Mariners could be faced with having to defeat the defending champs in must-win games for the Dodgers. It’s an “ace-in-the-hole” situation that might even impact the Astros’ mindset entering this weekend’s series, allowing them to play a tad more relaxed than the visiting Mariners.

That being said, Houston should obviously be doing everything in its power to win this series, especially since the tiebreaker between the two clubs is on the line. Conveniently, the Astros will send Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez to the mound for the first two games of the three-game set.

More Astros News from Climbing Tal's Hill