Astros’ performance in key game situation in 2025 has repeatedly cost them dearly

The Houston Astros still have a great chance to win the American League West division, but they’ll need to ramp up their opportune hitting to do so. Yordan Alvarez’s ankle injury won’t help matters in that regard. Alvarez was sorely missed on Friday night as the Astros registered just three hits (although one of them came off the bat of the reinstated Isaac Paredes).

Houston fell 4-0 to the Seattle Mariners, and its tie atop the AL West turned into a one-game deficit. With two games remaining in this pivotal series, the Astros can still take matters into their own hands by winning both battles. Also, even if the series ends unsuccessfully for the Astros, they have a much easier final six games than Seattle.

The division is there for the taking! But it’s not going to happen if the Astros can’t muster some offense. In particular, Houston’s bats need to wake up when there’s a runner 90 feet from home plate.

Astros have failed miserably in 2025 with a runner on third and less than two outs

Timely hitting is a trait that separates great teams from good ones; division winners from wild-card entries. It’s obvious that this air-tight AL West race will be won at the margins, and there’s one detail of the game that Houston hasn’t taken advantage of at all this season: driving in a runner on third base with less than two outs.

This oddly specific, yet pivotal stat came up during a recent mailbag exercise undertaken by Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara.

“Entering Thursday, the Astros had taken the third-fewest plate appearances in the majors this season with a runner on third base and less than two outs. Only the Angels and the Rockies had fewer. Capitalizing on those situations had proven as difficult as creating them.”

“The Astros’ .270 batting average in those situations ranked 29th in the majors; only the Twins had a lower one,” Kawahara continued. “MLB teams were averaging a .324/.347/.507 slash line in such plate appearances – the Astros had a .270/.303/.439 slash line in them. Overall, in plate appearances with a runner on third and less than two outs, the Astros had driven in that runner 48.6% of the time, per baseball-reference.com. That success rate was sixth-lowest in baseball. The White Sox, Twins, Angels, Braves and Mariners owned lower ones.”

Can Houston completely change this trend in the next week? It will be difficult without Alvarez in the lineup, but the Astros can remain hopeful that wily veterans like Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa will deliver down the stretch with runners in scoring position, even if both players haven’t been elite at doing so this season.

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