Absurd Alex Bregman contract details prove Astros were correct to pivot

Negotiations between Alex Bregman and the Houston Astros, or any other team, were always going to be tough. Bregman was clearly looking for one last massive contract and has an agent in Scott Boras who is among the best at securing such deals.

For any team aspiring to sign Bregman, the organization would have to weigh what they thought he would produce in the coming years versus how such a deal would impact the club's finances over the life of the contract.

In these sorts of high-stakes negotiations, no side usually ends up getting everything they want. Teams want to pay as little as possible and take on the least amount of risk. Players want the most money. Usually, both sides have to give a little in order to reach an agreement.

Such was the case with Bregman's new contract with the Boston Red Sox. Bregman did not get the six or seven-year deal he coveted, and the Red Sox had to guarantee Bregman big-time money over the next three seasons. However, a closer look at Bregman's deal shows why the Astros should be glad they pivoted and didn't give him the same deal.

Red Sox-Alex Bregman contract is one the Astros should be glad they didn't hand out

Bregman's new contract guarantees him $120 million over three years with opt outs after each year. While not the massive long-term deal he seemed dead-set on signing until very recently, it is a sizable raise and it affords him the opportunity to test free agency again if/ when it makes sense to do so.

However, there is no world where the Astros should have offered the same terms. If Bregman has an All-Star or MVP-caliber season in 2025, he is going to opt out. That would have put Houston in same position again next offseason and also would have forced the Astros to pay significant luxury tax penalties while also endangering other the potential for other free agent deals or contract extensions. And the worst-case scenario would have seen the Astros pay a player $40 million that isn't worth it.

On the Astros' side, they would have needed some sort of predictable outcome with Bregman. While a longer deal — like the one the Astros had on the table — came with risk, it is the type of deal they could have planned around with the cost more spread out more over six years.

If Bregman would have been amenable to a one-year deal with a high AAV, he could have hit free agency without the qualifying offer next offseason and Houston could have made plans for third base going forward.

Bregman's deal with the Red Sox provides neither, and all of the flexibility and control is on his side, which is precisely why he signed the deal. Boston was in a position where they needed to take that sort of risk given the pressure from their fans, but that doesn't mean the Astros were wrong to pass on offering the same.

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