Numbers prove that Astros remain the only team that could unlock Yusei Kikuchi

When the Houston Astros traded for Yusei Kikuchi at last year's trade deadline, many scratched their heads. Houston needed a starter, but Kikuchi didn't seem like a particularly good one and most thought the Astros overpaid for him. Despite some wipeout stuff, at the time of his acquisition, the Japanese southpaw had a 4.75 ERA on the year with the Toronto Blue Jays.

That type of performance wasn't an outlier for him, either. Since arriving stateside in 2019, the frustrating veteran had more seasons with an ERA over 5.00 (three) than he did with an ERA under 4.00 (one).

However, the Astros quickly got to work and made some key adjustments to Kikuchi's repertoire. The club had him more or less shelve his curveball, throw more sliders to both sides of the plate, increase his changeup usage, and throw more fastballs up in the zone.

As a result, Kikuchi made the Dana Brown and the Astros brass look like geniuses. Following the trade, he was downright dominant, making 10 starts and logging 60 innings while pitching to a 2.70 ERA. The tweaks the Astros made resulted in his highest K/9 rate of his career, 11.4, and his lowest BB/9 rate ever, 2.1.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Astros let Kikuchi walk in the offseason, allowing him to sign with a division rival no less. While that seemed like a bad idea at the time, maybe the Astros knew that they were the only ones who could fix the talented lefty.

The stats show that no one other than the Astros can figure out how to bring the best out of Kikuchi

While the Astros balked at the proposition of paying Kikuchi $21 million a year, the Los Angeles Angels dove in headfirst, targeting him early in free agency as the guy to head their rotation, a unit that has been lacking for years.

While he hasn't been terrible so far this season, it's been clear that he hasn't shown the same dominance that he did down the stretch in Houston. He's still using the same slider-heavy mix, relying on the pitch 38% of the time, which is equal to his fastball usage. The curveball is still mostly an afterthought, with just 9% utilization.

However, it appears that the book is out on the new look Kikuchi. He's not fooling hitters like he used to with his K/9 dropping to 8.29, his worst mark since 2019, which was his first year stateside. As the strikeouts have come crashing down, the walks are soaring, as he's up to 4.25 BB/9, one of the worst marks of his career.

While his 3.83 ERA through eight starts with the Angels isn't terrible, his FIP (4.58) and xERA (4.98) indicate that his performance has been worse than his results. With hitters now game to his plan of attack, his whiff rate has fallen from a superb 29.0% (76th percentile) to 21.5% (25th percentile).

Without the Astros tutelage, his failed to adjust to the adjustments his opponents have made in response to his new pitch mix, and the same command issues that have plagued his career have once again reared their ugly head.

For Houston, this development is doubly sweet. Not only are they validated in their decision to move on, but their work to unlock Kikuchi essentially hoodwinked a chief rival into overpaying for his services.

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