Revisiting the Yusei Kikuchi trade and the prospect package Astros sent to Blue Jays

At the trade deadline, the Houston Astros decided that the big move they were going to make was to go out and strike a trade with the Blue Jays for Yusei Kikuchi. While adding Kikuchi did technically address a key Astros need, the move came with some questions attached.

The problem wasn't the player, as Kikuchi did have some things going for him, especially the lack of a long-term financial commitment. Despite the resulting intrigue, most agreed that the Astros significantly overpaid for him, as they gave up top prospects Joey Loperfido, Jake Bloss, and Will Wagner. That package netted them just a few months of Kikuchi, who had been consistently a mid-4ish ERA pitcher ever since he'd reached MLB.

Since the trade, Kikuchi has been absolutely excellent. Thanks to a key pitch usage adjustment, Kikuchi has been one of Houston's best starters since the trade deadline, and one of the many reasons why the Astros are on the cusp of the postseason yet again.

Astros' trade package for Yusei Kikuchi still looks highly questionable

As good as Kikuchi has been for Houston since the trade, it is important to remember that he is a free agent after the 2024 season. That does not represent much in the way of team control, and although there is always the possibility that the Astros extend Kikuchi this offseason, the focus for the moment should be on the immediate returns from the trade so far. Here is how things look since the date of the trade:

Astros Return

• Yusei Kikuchi - Six starts, 35 IP, 2.57 ERA, 47 strikeouts, 10 walks, 0.9 rWAR

Blue Jays Return

• Joey Loperfido - .198/.232/.363, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 0.2 rWAR
• Jake Bloss (Triple-A) - 5 starts, 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 14 strikeouts, 11 walks
• Will Wagner - .356/.377/.559, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 0.7 rWAR

As we can see, the picture since the trade has been a bit of a mixed bag. Jake Bloss has scuffled with Toronto's Triple-A affiliate and has thrown limited innings there. Loperfido started off hot with the Blue Jays, but has since cooled off significantly. Will Wagner, on the other hand, has been on a warpath with Toronto, and appears to be much better than the Astros were giving him credit for.

So where does that leave the trade, now that some time has passed? The WAR for both teams has been roughly the same. However, the Astros got what appears to be a frontline starter for the rest of 2024, while the Blue Jays received two very promising young bats and a pitching prospect that pitched well enough to get to the majors this year.

The short version is that this now feels like a win-win situation for both teams, especially if the Astros can keep Kikuchi long-term. Toronto got to build up their prospect ranks without giving up guys like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Houston's decision-making looks a lot worse if Kikuchi walks after the season and a couple of the guys they gave up turn into valuable major leaguers. However, both teams got what they needed in the end, and for the moment, it looks a lot better for the Astros than it did at the time of the trade.

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