Astros need to take their eleventh-hour offer to Alex Bregman off the table

Much of this offseason for the Houston Astros has centered around the fate of Alex Bregman. Their stalled negotiations with Bregman were an impetus for the Astros to acquire Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker trade to be sure. Now, there is somehow still a possibility that Houston could reunite with Bregman, although it doesn't seem like their increased offer will be enough to bring him back.

This Bregman question has hung over the team like a storm cloud. Obviously Bregman's coaches and teammates would love to have him back and, for the right price, so would the front office. However, the uncertainty has only created more confusion. With spring training just days away, it is well past time for the Astros to cut their losses and just take their offer off the table.

Astros need to take their eleventh-hour offer to Alex Bregman off the table

Bregman just posted a 4.1 rWAR during the 2024 season and has long been considered a clubhouse leader throughout his tenure with the Astros. If Bregman comes back, Houston's chances of another World Series title this coming year go up, full stop.

However, there are some important trends to consider. After averaging a .911 OPS during his first four seasons with the Astros, Bregman has only managed to post a .795 OPS the last five seasons combined, and a lot of his value is coming from the defensive-side and his ability to draw walks.

As Father Time marches on and opposing pitchers don't fear him as much as they used, those two skills are likely to diminish. That's not exactly the type of player that screams "give me a long-term deal into my late 30s".

Another problem with the Astros keeping their current offer on the table is the inability to offer contract extensions to others who are currently on the roster. Houston generally does not like to exceed the luxury tax threshold, and if Bregman is on the books, one wonders how a Framber Valdez, Yainer Diaz, or Hunter Brown contract extension gets done.

The Astros can contine trying to keep up appearances and remain "involved" in the Bregman bidding if they want, but it's time to move on. The willingness to pay Bregman big money over six years is more likely to be an albatross around the team's neck rather than a blessing.

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