The Houston Astros Should Not Trade for Cole Hamels

By Larry Manch |

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Jun 30, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

With the Houston Astros still in first place in late June, recent talk has centered on trading for an established starting pitcher such as Cole Hamels in order to make a playoff push in 2015. To trade for Hamels would require the Astros to give up far too much, in prospects and dollars.

Houston would be better served by passing on the Phillies’ veteran pitcher.

In order to obtain an experienced, top ranked major league pitcher, the Astros would have to give up significant talent in minor league prospects and cash. The odds are that the Phillies are going to want in exchange for Hamels, top hitting prospects such as A.J. Reed, Brett Phillips, Jacob Nottingham, and Tony Kemp – all valuable future Astros.

Giving up any combination of those young bats is unacceptable. The Phillies would likely insist on at least three such prospects plus cash in exchange for Hamels, and I hope that Jeff Luhnow will not consider giving up so much talent for a 31-year-old pitcher (32 in December). Obviously, no one can predict which players will develop into Major Leaguers, but having a surplus of such potential is a bonus the Astros should not give away.

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Is Hamels really going to make enough of a difference to justify giving up so much? Not in my opinion. Not unless he wins 18+ games every year (something he has never done), continues to work 200+ innings, AND the Astros make the playoffs this season.

There are, of course, no guarantees that any such thing will happen, however, I would not want to trade away a bunch of minor league sluggers to take the chance that Hamels will add enough for the Astros to make the playoffs this year.

It is a bit premature to consider the Astros playoff contenders right now. Yes, they have an outside shot at getting there this year, and another quality starting pitcher is a must in order to have a legitimate chance at winning in the playoffs. Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves; realistically, the Astros are a year or two from playoff contention. If that is the case, then giving up three to five minor league prospects for Cole Hamels is not a smart move.

Next: A Further Look into Cole Hamels

A Further Look into Cole Hamels

Jun 19, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) watches from the dugout against the St. Louis Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park. The St. Louis Cardinals won 12-4. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Since 2012 when Hamels went 17-6, he is only 22-29, not necessarily indicative of his own ability, as he has obviously played for a team on the skids. According to Baseball-Reference.com, his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) has never been higher than 6.6 (in 2011 and 2014), considered All-Star quality, but less than MVP quality.

Hamels has given up an average of 25 home runs per year over his career, a number that would surely increase with the relatively short left field in Minute Maid Park, and with the center field fence moving in for 2016. (Two Astros lefthanders: Dallas Keuchel‘s average is 20, Brett Oberholtzer, 16). The rest of Hamels’ numbers are reasonable considering the quality of the team for which he now plays.

Statistics can be bent to serve any conclusion, and I’m not going to argue that Hamels’ stats are not good, especially since the Phillies have not had a winning season since 2011. There is no doubt this guy is a quality starting pitcher. Part of my problem with considering a trade for him is that at age 31, he likely has only 3-5 good years left.

Compare that with Astros minor league pitching prospects such as Mark Appel, Joe Musgrove, Mike Hauschild, Michael Feliz, Josh Hader, and others – all who have the potential to play an average of at least ten years in the Major Leagues. That is, they have the time to develop into talents at least as good as Hamels and help to propel the Astros to the postseason – without giving up prospects and millions of dollars.

Hamels is signed through 2018 at $23.5 million a season, with a $20 million team option for the 2019 season. Even if the Phillies pick up half of that salary (unlikely, in my opinion), it’s still too high a price to pay for a guy that may or may not make enough of a difference to justify the high price to obtain him.

The Astros have spent the past few seasons gathering minor league prospects, pitchers, and position players – “… staying consistent with our strategy,” said Luhnow in a 2013 article by Brian McTaggart. It is far more cost-effective to develop players the Astros already have than to trade for a high-priced veteran. Not only that, but the Astros are not expected to contend for a playoff spot this year, so why be in a hurry to trade away valuable prospects?

No, the Astros must continue to develop their minor league pitchers – guys that are eight to ten years younger than Hamels and have the potential to give at least that many years to the Astros as they continue to improve and seek post-season action.

I admit that my opinion includes a large dose of gut feeling – that dealing for Hamels is simply a bad idea. I am willing to bet that sometimes GM’s base their actions on their own gut feelings – taking a chance one way or the other, at least in part because their gut and heart tells them it’s the right or wrong move to make.

Besides my gut though, in my view the price is too high and the risk too great. In short, the Astros should not trade for Hamels. They need to hang on to as many of the leading prospects as possible to plan for winning Astros teams for many years to come.

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