(47) gestures as he enters the dugout before the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
I suppose I could try to convince you that trading for Johnny Cueto is a great idea, but what fun would that be? Instead, let’s argue the case against trading for the Reds’ right-hander.
Clearly, the Houston Astros are in the market for a front-line starter. The club enters Friday with a record of 47 – 34 on the season. That’s good enough for a five-game lead over the Anaheim Angels (you can only be from one place Angels) and six games over the Texas Rangers of Arlington. I would say that those numbers are a pretty good indicator that the current team is well configured. It’s a far cry from the 2014 Astros who finished 22 games under .500.
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Still, if the Astros are going to be considered real contenders for a World Series run, they’ll have to be able to trot out at least three better than average starters. We know Dallas Keuchel has solidified himself as a bonafide ace and that Lance McCullers appears to be the real deal, but that’s not quite enough to take into a playoff series. I’m not counting on Collin McHugh or Scott Feldman or Vincent Velasquez or anyone else the Houston organization currently possesses to round out that top 3. So, the Astros are looking for another top flight arm that can help them make the push this year.
Everyone acknowledges that Cole Hamels would be the perfect fit for the Astros if Houston were able to acquire him at the deadline. He is an ace, he is locked up for another four years, and he has World Series MVP experience that he could bring to the young clubhouse. The problem is that the Phillies will likely ask for the moon, and Astros GM Jeff Luhnow may balk at the price.
Is Johnny Cueto the Answer?
May 19, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
That takes us to the next best pitcher on the availability market, Johnny Cueto. The 29-year-old Dominican is in his 8th season and is enjoying another fantastic year. At the half-way point, he is 5-5 with a 2.84 ERA, 0.917 WHIP, and 100 Ks in 104.2 innings pitched. If you put him on a better club, he probably has 8 or 9 wins at this point. He’s an ace, and he’s only 29. So, why not trade for him? I’ll tell you why.
The guy can’t hit! Ok, we have guys who can take care of that part of the game. Clearly, we’re looking for someone to start a game 1 or game two scenario in the playoffs. If Cueto joins the Astros, he would certainly be slotted into one of those roles, but let’s examine his playoff history for a moment. Johnny has been to the playoffs three times. He has been handed the ball to start game one all three years. His record is 0-2, with a 5.19 ERA and 1.731 WHIP. The Reds lost each series.
Let’s take a look at each of those three games. His most recent start was in 2013. It was a one-game wild card playoff, and he only lasted 3.1 innings while giving up 4 earned runs. The Reds lost, and they went home. In 2012, Cueto started game 1 of the NLDS and lasted 1/3 of an inning. The Reds lost that game and went on to lose the series in 5 games. In 2010, Cueto started game one against the Phillies and actually pitched pretty well. However, he only lasted five innings and lost the game while Cole Hamels threw a complete game shutout on the other end.
Another question I have is whether he can be relied upon. I’ve already touched on his 1/3 inning in the 2012 NLDS. In 2013, he could not provide stability for his club at the top of the rotations, hitting the DL 3 times with a right lat strain and providing only 60.2 innings out of the ace slot. On the flip side, he threw an eye-popping 243.2 innings last season. Both of those extremes scare me for a long-term signing, but the injury risk is much more pressing considering 2015.
Next: The Cost is too Much
The Cost is too Much
Jul 1, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) is congratulated by manager
after the Reds defeated the Minnesota Twins 2-1 at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Perhaps the most obvious argument against trading any of the Astros coveted talent away for Cueto is that he is not under contract for next year and will likely command upwards of $20 million a season for 5-6 years. That’s a lot of money for anyone, but it’s the going rate for big time arms these days. Is he really the guy you want to dump your cash on in the offseason? If your answer is yes, great. That doesn’t mean that Johnny Cueto will say yes to Houston, come the offseason.
I’m all for giving up high-end talent for a knockout puncher, but Randy Johnson he is not. Johnny Cueto is certainly an upgrade over other options and would make the team an instant championship contender. However, the Athletics were championship contenders last year after acquiring Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija, and they won nothing. I say look elsewhere or focus on the absolute best fit for your club.
Houston needs to take advantage of its best shots because you never know when you’ll get another one. I argue that Cueto not only doesn’t give you that best shot this year but is also not a solution until after 2015.
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