Zach Cole became an instant phenom for the Houston Astros last September. He got his shot at a big league cup off coffee thanks to Yordan Alvarez's ankle sprain, and while the Astros ultimately missed the playoffs, Cole did his best to will them there with a 142 wRC+ over his 15-game stretch.
At the time, Cole was a prospect in the back-half of Houston's top-30, in a farm system that was among the very worst in the league. However, that brief showing changed the calculus.
Heading into spring training, a lot of hopes were placed on his shoulders. Not only is there a need in the outfield, but Cole is a left-handed bat, and competence from that side of the plate is something the club desperately needs.
Unfortunately, Cole is hitless so far through five games, but before the concern meter goes through the roof, there's some pertinent information to consider. Small sample sizes aren't reliable for a reason, and Cole has been scorching balls with nothing to show for it. Four of the five balls he's put in play have left the bat with exit velocities over 100 miles per hour. Maybe he's doing everything he needs to do, and things will turn around quickly.
The Astros hopelessly search for left-handed offensive production
As Cole continues to hit rockets, it's important to look at other factors that could point to him being deserving of a roster spot and starting job in the outfield.
The first order of business is the strikeouts. He regularly topped the 30% mark throughout his minor league career, sometimes by a wide margin. Last year, between Corpus Christi and Sugar Land, he posted a 35.1% strikeout rate. During his 52 September plate appearances, it came in at a ghastly 38.5%.
Over time, those sky-high marks aren't suitable for sustainable success, even if Cole has always mitigated it somewhat with better-than-average walk rates.
So far this spring, he's brought the strikeouts down to a 26.7% clip. That still might be a touch higher than you'd like to see, but it is certainly manageable. He's also walking at the same rate, which is a good sign.
The most exciting thing about Cole is his extreme athleticism. He's got power and speed, and that plays both in the batter's box, in the field where he can handle all three outfield positions, and on the basepaths. He's made the most of his walks with four stolen bases through five games, proving that his wheels are no joke.
The other big challenger Cole is facing this spring is second-year man Cam Smith, a player who's already looked like the odd man out heading into the spring. Smith endured an uneven rookie campaign that signaled he might need more seasoning, and so far, he's done very little to stand out.
So while the Astros shouldn't be overly concerned with Cole just yet, the state of their corner outfield situation is pretty alarming. If Cole can't turn impressive exit velocities into actual production soon, the outfield will be one of the league's weaker units, while the club still might not have found a reliable second lefty behind Alvarez in the starting lineup.
Monitor this closely, but don't panic... yet.
