Yainer Diaz’s massive flaw is threatening to hold the Astros back

In 2023, Yainer Diaz became a breakout star for the Houston Astros. A power-hitting catcher acquired from the Cleveland Guardians in 2021 in exchange for Myles Straw, Diaz displayed the kind of pop and power that showcased how he could be a part of the team’s future. 

And then this year happened. While Diaz has still slugged 12 home runs this year, he’s on pace to set a new career-high in strikeouts and post an OPS+ under 100. That is just not enough for an Astros team that still needs some help on offense. 

Yainer Diaz’s massive flaw is threatening to hold the Astros back

Diaz is no stranger to swinging and missing. In fact, he’s finished every full season of his career with a strikeout rate greater than 17%. But those marks have always been buoyed by a strong exit velocity and launch angle, as evidenced by him finishing in the 91st percentile in expected batting average in 2023 and the 97th percentile last year. 

That hasn’t been the case this year. Entering play on Saturday, Diaz ranked in just the 70th percentile in expected batting average (.274) along with being in the first percentile in chase rate and the sixth percentile in walk rate. 

Last year, Diaz posted a career-high .299 batting average and .325 on-base percentage. This year those marks stand at .246 and .281 respectively. 

Even with those struggles, there’s still a chance for Diaz to help the Astros this year. Despite the team getting a lack of production from Diaz, Christian Walker, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, they still entered play on Saturday in first place in the American League West thanks to strong seasons from players like Cam Smith and Isaac Paredes, who was just named an All-Star. 

That, coupled with strong starting pitching, has helped keep them afloat. But that doesn’t mean that all of this year will be a struggle for Diaz. He’s still punishing fastballs (.296 batting average against), but for whatever reason he’s not hitting breaking pitches like he has in years prior (.208 batting average compared to .293 last year). 

In years prior, the Astros could shield Diaz with a healthy Altuve or Alvarez, which meant that Diaz got more pitches to hit and more opportunities to hit with runners on base. This year that hasn’t been the case, which has allowed for pitchers to attack him with junk, and it’s clear that he’s had trouble laying off those pitches. 

He’s always going to swing and miss, but that lack of contract feels a bit more pronounced when he’s not scalding the ball all over the field. 

As we mentioned above, that dip in production hasn’t hurt the Astros in the standings. If Diaz is able to get hot again and lay off pitches out of the zone, Houston’s lineup could reach a new level quickly.

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