With Isaac Paredes’ All-Star nod, Astros are officially winners of Kyle Tucker trade

When the Houston Astros made the shocking decision to trade Kyle Tucker to the Cubs last offseason, it is fair to say that the reviews were, at best, mixed. The Astros clearly got real talent back in the deal in Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith, but trading a MVP caliber player in Tucker meant that the Astros' lineup would be worse in 2025 by most "experts". However, with the recent news that Paredes was named to the 2025 AL All-Star team, sentiment around the trade should change.

Yes, Tucker has been legitimately awesome for Chicago and has positioned himself for a huge payday after the season. However, that doesn't mean that Houston was wrong to make the move. In fact, once you dig into the details, it sure seems like the Astros are actually the clear winners in this deal.

As good as Kyle Tucker has been, the Astros won the trade

It is important to remember that we are still early and things could change drastically. In the unlikely event that the Cubs are successful in extending Tucker on a relatively reasonable deal and Paredes and Smith turn into pumpkins, then this deal looks significantly worse for Houston. However, there is no indication that is happening and even then, the Astros have already gotten a lot of value from the trade.

While Hayden Wesneski needing Tommy John surgery was a bummer, the Astros have already gotten more value out of their return than Chicago has out of Tucker. Yes, Tucker has been good for 4.0 rWAR in 2025, which is tremendous, but Paredes and Smith have combined for an extremely solid 4.8 rWAR, and that is with covering spots on the roster that needed the help. The Cubs are getting Tucker's production out of one roster slot, but that advantage is offset by Houston paying around $9 million less for Paredes and Smith together than if they had kept Tucker.

The real benefit, though, comes with the team control that the Astros got back in the trade. Paredes is arbitration-eligible through the 2027 season, Wesneski only becomes arb-eligible next season, and Smith has years before he hits arbitration, and he might win Rookie of the Year this year. Meanwhile, Tucker is a free agent after this season and might command a contract in excess of $600 million that the Astros were absolutely not going to give him.

If the Cubs make a deep postseason run in 2025, they may not care that they gave up so much future value, especially given how that market could reward such a run in terms of revenue. However, strictly looking at the numbers and production on the field, there is no other conclusion to reach right now other than that the Astros won the trade.

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