Cam Smith’s Rookie of the Year odds may be better than Astros fans think

When Houston Astros rookie Cam Smith got off to a slow start this season, there was no shortage of takes questioning the Astros' decision to promote him so quickly. Skepticism was certainly warranted given how Smith was hitting .213 at the end of April, but Smith has really turned things on since then.

As we approach the All-Star break, Smith currently boasts a .286/.351/.435 line thanks in large part to a scorching month of June, where he posted an .849 OPS, and the month of July is off to a great start as well.

In fact, Smith is playing so well that he is playing his way firmly into the AL Rookie of the Year race. While his main competition for the award seemingly has a head start on him, Smith's chances of taking the ROY crown are a lot better than some give him credit for.

Cam Smith might actually be the AL Rookie of the Year favorite right now

Realistically, there are only two rookies in the AL that could be considered ahead of Smith in the ROY race: the Athletics' Jacob Wilson and Red Sox's Carlos Narvaez. You can throw the Rays' Jake Mangum as a dark horse candidate and maybe White Sox starter Shane Smith or Yankees starter Will Warren if you really want to include some pitchers.

Wilson is having a great season and deserves the attention he is getting. However, what he is doing also really doesn't seem sustainable. Wilson swings at everything, doesn't walk, and while he makes loads of contact, the quality of that contact is usually very poor (bottom 5% in baseball in average exit velocity). If he doesn't start impacting the ball more soon, the regression is going to come swiftly.

Narvaez is a more interesting case. He has been an above-average hitter this season, but a lot of his value has come from a rarely seen trait in rookie catchers in his defense and game calling. That value is absolutely real, but also isn't the kind of thing that is going to jazz up ROY voters like the skills that Smith brings to the table.

Ultimately, it is up to Smith to keep playing well, and the rest should take care of itself. If he continues to find his power and make consistent contact while also showcasing surprisingly good defense in the outfield, he is going to have as strong a case for Rookie of the Year as anyone. However, even at just the midway point and after a slow start, Smith may actually be the AL ROY favorite right now once you dig into the numbers a bit.

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