Cam Smith is finally breaking out for Astros except for one unfortunate flaw

When Cam Smith exploded onto the scene during Houston Astros spring training, many expected that the youngster would continue that hot-hitting once the games began to count. As the regular season rolled around, however, Smith's bat cooled off.

Instead, the early part of the 2025 season saw some surprising developments from the highly-touted 22-year-old. While defense was never his calling card as a prospect, and many questioned moving him off of his natural third base position to play right field, it was his impressive glove work that drove his early Rookie of the Year candidacy.

As the season has moved along, Smith has started to come alive with the bat. After hitting just .213 in the season's first month, Smith rebounded to hit .307 in May and .291 in June. His May power outage, which saw him go homerless and slug an even .400, was at least partially rectified in June with a big two-homer game followed by another round-tripper against his former team.

Slowly, it's all starting to come together for Smith, but one key skill is still lagging behind as the rookie goes through the adjustment process of learning how to navigate big league pitching.

Houston Astros' rookie Cam Smith must overcome this critical flaw to fully break out

Scouts raved about Smith's offensive potential when he was selected 14th overall last year by the Chicago Cubs, with his hit tool, power, and improving plate discipline all earning superb reviews. After turning pro, Smith showed off those loud and impressive tools in the minors last season, posting a .313/.396/.609 line with seven home runs in 35 games.

One of the most impressive parts of his 2024 campaign was his mature approach at the plate. In his combined action last season, Smith posted an encouraging 11.2% walk rate, indicating that the changes he implemented during his sophomore season at Florida State, where he more than doubled his walk total from the previous year.

So far in 2025, Smith hasn't quite put that part of his game together consistently. Walks haven't been an issue for the AL Rookie of the Year hopeful the entire season, with a roughly league-average walk rate on the year sitting at 8.2%.

However, the progression has been the opposite of what you'd like to see. Smith opened the year with a very good 9.4% walk rate in the season's first month and improved that number in May, coming in at 10.6%. However, as he's tapped into his power more frequently in June, that number has slipped all the way down to an unacceptable 4.8%.

The lack of walks is going to be a problem if Smith continues to strike out at an elevated clip, currently sitting with a 26.8% K-rate on the year. The good news is Smith doesn't chase out of the zone more than average, posting a chase rate that's in the 51st percentile. However, the swing and miss is certainly part of his game, with his 27.3% whiff rate being in just the 30th percentile.

For Smith to truly put it all together, he's going to need all parts of his game to be firing at the same time. That means hitting the ball to all fields, tapping into his power, and exercising the discipline to make superior contact consistently and draw walks when he can. Until that happens, he'll be an intriguing prospect and not much more, but if and when the art of drawing a walk clicks for him, watch out for he will be a monster.

The good news here is that Smith made drastic improvements in college from one year to the next. The Astros will hope that that sort of dedication to improvement will come out as the budding star gets more looks at big league pitchers, just as that sort of improvement has shone through in other areas of his game.

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