Cam Smith's monster game for Astros gives hope he is overcoming two huge flaws

Are these red flags or temporary bumps in the road?
Houston Astros v Athletics
Houston Astros v Athletics | Lachlan Cunningham/GettyImages

When the Houston Astros acquired Cam Smith as part of the return package for superstar Kyle Tucker, it was easy to fall in love with his tremendous potential. Built like an NFL linebacker at 6-foot-3, 224 pounds, and blessed with incredible athleticism, one did not have to squint very hard to see a future star.

Add in a blistering spring training when teammate Mauricio Dubón lavished him with praise, calling him "the next 60-homer guy," once he figures it all out, the 22-year-old's hype train was off to the races, full steam ahead.

On Tuesday, it felt like the Astros' gambit with Smith truly started to pay off. Smith went 4-5 with a pair of homers against the Athletics. If you were wondering what Smith's upside could look like, it was on full display in the Astros' win.

However, while Smith may be an AL Rookie of the Year front-runner, it's been his unexpectedly good defense in his new digs out in right field that has been fueling his campaign. Despite his bat's immense power potential, Smith is slashing a relatively average .266/.336/.412 through 59 games with two serious flaws in his offensive game being exposed before his breakout game on Tuesday.

Strikeouts and power outages have been two glaring flaws in Houston Astros rookie Cam Smith's game

Despite Dubón's proclamation, Smith has a paltry five home runs on the year, some of which have been aided by Daikin Park's friendly dimensions. His xHR per Statcast is just 2.4, with four of his five dingers falling into the "doubters" category.

The data shows that his lack of power output shouldn't really be a surprise. Smith has posted below-average marks in barrel percentage (7.2%, 35th percentile), average exit velocity (89.2 miles per hour, 38th percentile), and expected slugging percentage (.412, 40th percentile), showing that he's not consistently getting the sweetspot of the bat to the ball and connecting in a way which will consistently do damage.

That's partly due to the other serious concern in his game, the strikeout. The rookie is striking out an eye-popping 27.7% of the time which ranks in the 11th percentile in the majors. That's a stark contrast from his albeit short minor league stint last season in which he struck out just 17.9% o the time splitting his 32 games across three levels, ranging from A-ball to Double-A.

The good and bad news is that Smith is not chasing pitches out of the zone at an astronomically high rate with his 27.2% mark ranking a hair better than league average coming in at the 52nd percentile. He is, however, whiffing much more than the aveage hitter with a 29.7% rate thats down at the bottom of the league in the 17th percentile.

Smith has struggled against four-seam fastballs and sliders this season, seemingly caught between the change in velocity and unable to catch up to either. Given his lack of experience, he was a first-round pick just last year and became the third-fastest player in history to make his debut on opening day with just 32 games of minor league experience under his belt.

As concerning as these holes in his game are currently, it's important to remember where Smith is coming from. Despite his hype reaching a fever pitch, he entered the year as MLB.com's 73rd-overall prospect. That's a glowing ranking, for sure, but one that shows he is far from a finished product, especially given his lack of professional experience.

The other big silver lining is that Smith possesses elite bat speed. His average swing of 75.1 miles per hour is in the 90th percentile, showing his strength and potential to do damage. With experience, Smith will better learn how to stay on balance between fastballs and breaking pitches, better understand how pitchers are planning to attack him, and hopefully be able to square up more balls to take advantage of his lightning quick bat and unleash his monstrous power.

Should he put those pieces together, expect him to become the star all were hoping for when the season began, but in the meantime, remember how important it is to calibrate expectations and meet youngsters like Smith where they are, rather than where we'd like them to be. Thankfully, it looks like he may be on his way to doing just that if Tuesday's game is any indication.

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